Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
IHS Markit works with a significant number of clients with
global footprints, especially in insurance, providing realistic disaster scenarios.
The goal of these scenarios is to consider events that are unlikely
but would be impactful if they happened so that our clients can
evaluate their books of business against potential losses. This is
the first in a series of exercises considering a number of
potential realistic disaster scenarios.
Our current view on regional war risks in the Middle East is
that US-Iran negotiations are likely to lead at least to a partial
lifting of sanctions; Iranian nuclear breaches to continue until
then, but support for regional militia aggression and ballistic
missile precision development will continue irrespective of a deal.
However, for this exercise, we considered what it would look like
if instead, risks rose significantly in the region.
Scenario: Nuclear negotiations stall amid escalating
retaliatory attacks, culminating in Iran, the US, and Israel
entering into a regional war.
Negotiations between the US and Iran run aground over reinforced
constraints on Iran's nuclear programme as well as its ballistic
missile programme and regional activity. To secure additional
leverage, Iran continues ramping up its nuclear capacity and
backing of armed activity carried out by regional militias.
Iran-backed militias intensify their attacks on US forces in Iraq.
Limited US response encourages further Iranian aggression, while
more significant US retaliation - for instance, the assassination
of a high-ranking Iranian military figure - also provokes
additional Iranian-backed attacks. Meanwhile, to contain Iran and
potentially derail Iran-P5+1 negotiations, Israel likewise
increases its own attacks.
Neither the US nor Iran seeks war, but this continued escalation
culminates in a "final straw" event that inadvertently takes all
parties into open war. One potential trigger event for this would
be a Western/Israeli assessment, contained in leaked intelligence
reports, that Iran is undertaking measures bringing it imminently
closer to a nuclear device, in response to repeated sabotage or
assassinations targeting its nuclear industry.
The perceived imminence of a nuclear Iran pushes Israel towards
a military campaign featuring airstrikes on surface nuclear
infrastructure, and a mixture of "smart" "bunker-busters" and
covert sabotage targeting Fordow and Natanz's underground nuclear
facilities. Israel, however, lacks the necessary type of
"bunker-busters" to penetrate the deepest facilities and needs the
US's most advanced 13.6-tonne massive ordnance penetrator for that
purpose, or an aircraft capable of its delivery. Even if the US
initially disapproves of Israel's military strikes, once Iran
retaliates around the region, the Biden administration finds itself
drawn, under pressure from Congress, into the war alongside
Israel.
Another trigger event for US entry into the war would include an
attack by a regional militia in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or the
southern Gulf, traceable with high confidence to Iranian direction,
and causing significant US/Israel casualties. This would lead to
overwhelming domestic pressure to retaliate.
Initial strikes on Iran focus on the most proliferation-risky
nuclear facilities, specifically Fordow, Natanz, the Arak
heavy-water plant, and any military site suspected of hosting
weaponisation experiments. These airstrikes are preceded by
significant and simultaneous covert "ground-softening" sabotage
using agents and cyberattacks.
As hostilities expand, the US and Israel mount kinetic and cyber
strikes on IRGC bases, attempting especially to incapacitate naval
and aerospace/missile assets deployed along the Gulf and stretching
northwestward along the Iraqi border. Throughout Iran, the US and
Israel also use both kinetic and cyberattacks to strike
communications infrastructure, defence and aerospace industries,
and naval bases and civilian airstrips assessed to be used for
military purposes. They otherwise refrain from targeting cities
and, where avoidable, critical civilian infrastructure such as
water and power utilities. If sustained, these strikes also target
oil/gas/petrochemical exporting maritime ports including Mahshahr,
Asaluyeh, and especially the Kharg Island Oil Terminal, which
handles 90% of Iran's crude exports.
Bandar Imam Khomeini, Khorramshahr, and Chabahar, ports that
process non-energy cargo, sustain relatively less damage, if at
all. However, ports in the vicinity of military bases, including
Bandar Abbas, Mahshahr, Bandar Bushehr, and Kharg Island suffer
significant damage. Attacks on the Bandar Bushehr area pose
low-to-moderate risks of collateral damage to the Bushehr Nuclear
Power Plant 10 km to the south. Other than disruptions, the attacks
cause port infrastructural damage requiring months to repair.
Meanwhile, Iran responds with missiles (ballistic, cruise, and
anti-ship), weaponised drones, and both surface and submarine naval
combatants targeting US forces around the Gulf and US bases,
air-defence radars, and systems throughout the southern Gulf, Iran,
and its client militias. Southern Gulf maritime ports at highest
risk of being targeted in a regional war include Dammam/King
Abdulaziz, Ras Tanura, Jubail (alongside the nearby King Abdulaziz
Naval base), Abu Dhabi, Fujairah, Jebel Ali, and Khalifa Bin
Salman. Port activity is disrupted for some weeks, and ensuing
damage requires weeks to months to repair.
In the Levant, Lebanese Hizbullah launches rocket/missile salvos
and weaponised drones into Israel. The range of these attacks
encompasses the entire north region of Israel, including Haifa
port, and as deep into Israel as Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion
International Airport. Missiles occasionally go beyond these
ranges. From Gaza, militant groups - notably Palestinian Islamic
Jihad - fire rockets into areas surrounding Gaza to a range
reaching at least Tel Aviv and covering Ashdod port. Israel's
multi-layered missile defence system intercepts most projectiles
aimed at populated areas, but under salvo fire, many projectiles
manage to overwhelm air defences. Hostilities disrupt civil
aviation and shipping for days, stretching into weeks.
Iran blockades and mines the Strait of Hormuz and uses anti-ship
missiles to target nearby commercial vessels linked to the US and
its allies, which challenge Iran's blockade. While some shipping
continues, US-allied forces are unable to fully ensure the safety
of merchant shipping.
In Iraq, the 2,500 US soldiers in the country
become even more exposed to attacks by Iran-backed Shia resistance
militias.
In Syria, US aerial attacks target Iranian
and/or pro-Iranian forces - especially in eastern Syria's Deir
Ezzor province and its Bu Kamal region on the Iraqi border.
In Israel, militants in the surrounding
region, most prominently Lebanese Hizbullah, launch rocket and
missile salvos along with attack unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
into Israeli territory, spanning northern Israel and the Golan
Heights to Be'er Sheva region.
In Lebanon, the IDF conducts a major air
campaign targeting broad swaths of southern Lebanon, southern
Beirut's Dahiya area, and Baalbek.
In the UAE, commercial and especially energy
shipping in UAE waters both in the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of
Oman (especially off Fujairah's coast) are likely targets for
sabotage, as are Emirati oil, gas, and petrochemical
facilities.
Listen to our podcast on our RDS scenario.
The full report, including the full
text for the individual countries, indicators that this scenario is
becoming more likely, and damage factors is now available.
Posted 14 June 2021 by Kevjn Lim, Principal Research Analyst, Middle East and North Africa, Country Risk, IHS Markit
Join our webinar as our subject matter experts walk through key trends affecting each stage of the supply chain and… https://t.co/mFpMs3XP5G
May 06
{"items" : [
{"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2frealistic-disaster-scenario-what-if-a-regional-war-breaks-out-.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2frealistic-disaster-scenario-what-if-a-regional-war-breaks-out-.html&text=Realistic+Disaster+Scenario%3a+What+if+a+regional+war+breaks+out+in+the+Middle+East%3f+%7c+IHS+Markit+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2frealistic-disaster-scenario-what-if-a-regional-war-breaks-out-.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=Realistic Disaster Scenario: What if a regional war breaks out in the Middle East? | IHS Markit &body=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2frealistic-disaster-scenario-what-if-a-regional-war-breaks-out-.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=Realistic+Disaster+Scenario%3a+What+if+a+regional+war+breaks+out+in+the+Middle+East%3f+%7c+IHS+Markit+ http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2frealistic-disaster-scenario-what-if-a-regional-war-breaks-out-.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"}
]}