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A practical approach for stress testing insurance portfolios - Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS)

Stress testing with Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) helps you identify and measure your risk

Our solution offers custom short- and medium-term qualitative based scenarios assessing low likelihood, high impact, realistic disaster scenarios.

Our team will build realistic disaster scenarios that are relevant to your business and exposures to test your resilience to enable you to:

  • Perform impact evaluation and understand your exposures
  • Anticipate and plan for low probability but high impact developments
  • Monitor changing probabilities and proactively adapt your portfolio resiliency

Our scenario work draws on strong quantitative and qualitative data by our team of experts specializing in risk forecasting. The qualitative and quantitative risk analysis performed is grounded in the deep knowledge and insight of local dynamics from our regional teams and source network. We work with 80% of Lloyd’s underwriters who cover political violence or political risk.

Do you need a custom realistic disaster scenario? Request a consult with our team
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Stress test your portfolio Realistic Disaster Scenario: Iran regional war risks
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Understand the worst case scenario Realistic Disaster Scenario: Latin America regional SRCC risks
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Features & Coverage

Features

  • Short- and medium-term qualitative-based scenario assessing a low likelihood, high impact scenario.
  • Can be paired with a quantitative impact assessment of the scenario (example scenarios: economic contagion, war, terrorism, civil unrest, political instability).

Coverage

  • Qualitative risk analysis description of each realistic disaster scenario
  • Indicator events for each scenario
  • An ‘extreme’ version of each realistic disaster scenario
  • Tables of calculated damage factors and of aggregate political risk scores
  • Methodology overview
  • Executive summary and briefing
  • Annual updates

RDS insights from our analysts

Listen to our podcast Realistic Disaster Scenarios: Iran regional war risk

Experts

Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Ph.D.

Dr. Wlodarczyk's team is responsible for developing and delivering forward-looking political, industry and economic insight, data and advisory for government and private sector clients to support strategic planning and business growth. Dr. Wlodarczyk has more than 15 years of experience working on both methodology development and assessment delivery for Risk Intelligence, as well as supporting clients in buliding out their own intelligence teams and capabilties. She has supported clients on market entry and risk management for emerging markets for over a decade and has led projects across Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. She adds particular expertise in analyzing cultural drivers of behavior and decision-making, in particular for mapping of influence groups and dynamics. Dr. Wlodarczyk has a background working in building capacity for conflict resolution in locations with civil conflict, often in Africa. Formerly she was head of Africa Forecasting for Exclusive Analysis, now part of IHS Markit. She has written several articles and book chapters about the impact of belief and culture on behavior in conflict, and she is the author of the book, "Magic and Warfare: Appearance and reality in contemporary African conflict and beyond," published in the US by Palgrave Macmillian. Dr. Wlodarczyk has taught contemporary security issues at UK universities, including the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, and King's College London (KCL). Dr. Wlodarczyk attained her Ph.D. in War Studies at KCL, and she holds a Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science in International Relations from London School of Economics (LSE), United Kingdom.

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Anna Boyd

She was previously the head of MENA corporate investigations at FTI Consulting where she managed many complex multi-jurisdictional matters in the field of integrity due diligence, asset tracing and litigation support, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Libya.Prior to her move into consulting, she was head of the Middle East and North Africa Country Risk Forecasting team at IHS Markit, responsible for political risk forecasting, scenario modelling and quantitative risk scoring across the whole region. Anna has led on projects including devising a political risk model relating to the security of Qatari food imports, managing a series of in-depth MENA region country studies for a US government client, and war-gaming possible future developments in the Syria conflict. She has provided expert comment to several media outlets including Al Jazeera, Reuters and the BBC. Anna started her career as an Arabic linguist with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.Anna holds an MA with Distinction in Arabic from the School of Oriental and African Studies, having written her dissertation on 1950s-60s Iraqi poetry. She also holds a 1st class honors degree in Arabic from the University of Edinburgh and studied in Cairo and Damascus. She speaks French and Arabic.

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Alyssa Grzelak

Ms. Grzelak leads a team of economists responsible for the banking sector risk ratings, analysis, and forecasts of the world's most intriguing and hard-to-monitor emerging market financial sectors. Her particular focus is on banking sector risk in the Middle East and Africa region, as well as Turkey. She has over 10 years' experience analyzing financial sector risks in emerging markets and assessing counterparty credit risks. Alyssa originally joined IHS Markit through Global Insight, where she worked as a macroeconomist in the Middle East and North Africa team, with responsibility for the economic forecasts and sovereign risk ratings of several regional economies. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Alyssa worked for the US Department of Defense in Washington, DC and Manulife Financial in Boston, Massachusetts. She studied Economics for a year abroad at University College London. Alyssa graduated summa cum laude with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and International Affairs from Northeastern University.

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Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

The Integrated Research works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis to help our clients make business decisions. His area of interest lies in assessing the stresses and vulnerabilities of emerging and frontier markets and their interaction with multilateral institutions. Dr. Suckling previously led the political risk analysis team and was responsible for auditing assessments provided by the specialist regional desks, co-ordinating cross-regional outputs, deliberating house views across, and updating the team's political risk methodology. He specializes in assessing political and economic risks affecting clients working in African markets in the areas of market entry and integrity due diligence. Dr. Suckling holds a B.A., M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the London School of Economics.

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Alexia Ash

Ms. Ash is a quantification expert within the country risk team. She is experienced at using methods including risk indexing, stochastic processes, Bayesian modelling, and regression analysis. She was on the development team for Every Point on the Planet (EPOP), IHS Markit's flagship country risk mapping tool. She has worked on projects for private sector clients to provide probabilistic modelling of terrorist attacks by specific location and time frame; to design methodology to identify percentage probabilities for scenarios affecting food and water security in the Middle East; and to model the impact of economics and country risk on asset investments. Ms. Ash holds a Bachelor of Arts in mathematics, as well as a Bachelor of Arts in political science from the University of Florida in the United States, and Master of Science in global political economy from the London School of Economics (LSE), United Kingdom.

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Venla Sipilä-Rosen

Venla Sipilä-Rosen is the Europe and CIS economist with Economics & Country Risk team at IHS Markit. In addition, she is involved in managing the Sovereign Risk service. She joined the company in March 2004.Her prior working experience includes employment at the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) in Helsinki, Finland, and at the Department for Development Assistance of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Helsinki. She also has experience in teaching, having worked as a college professor in economics and as a teaching assistant in economics and statistics at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES), University College London (UCL), as well as an examiner for the Russian and East European Studies Program at the Renvall Institute for Area and Cultural Studies, University of Helsinki. She earned a Doctoral degree in economics from SSEES, UCL and a Master's degree in social sciences (economics) from the University of Helsinki. She has studied in Vienna, Austria; Saarbrücken, Germany; and Moscow, Russia. She speaks Finnish, Swedish, German, and some Russian.

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