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Monthly GDP rose 2.6% in March, more than reversing a 1.4%
decline in February. The increase in March was mostly accounted for
by a sharp rise in personal consumption expenditures, although
other positive contributions originated in nonresidential fixed
investment, residential fixed investment, and the portion of
monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data. Net exports and
inventory investment both declined in March. The level of monthly
GDP in March was only 0.4% below the February 2020 level (the
pre-pandemic peak). We currently expect GDP to surpass the
pre-pandemic peak this month.
IHS
Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of
real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product
Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for
two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same
underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of
GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar
to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency
is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly
source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is
nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
