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Our Monthly GDP (MGDP) Index is an indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). Our approach uses calculation and aggregation methods comparable to the official GDP from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. As a result, you receive a monthly index whose variation at the quarterly frequency mimics that of official GDP, and whose intra-quarter variation is a meaningful and comprehensive measure of monthly changes in output.
We calculate the MGDP in two steps. First, we derive a raw index from various monthly data, most of which is source data that BEA uses to calculate official quarterly GDP. Second, we calculate a monthly residual that reconciles the raw index with official GDP at the quarterly frequency. We provide MGDP data and historical files to the public at no charge. Please contact us if you need to access our archives of the MGDP.
Additional Coverage
In addition to MGDP, we calculate monthly measures of several NIPA aggregates:
A thought-leader on US economic outlook, monetary policy
forecasts and fixed income markets with over 30 years of experience
and expertise as a macroeconomic modeler, Dr. Joel has developed an
unmatched structural-econometric model of the US economy. He
co-founded Macroeconomic Advisers which was acquired in 2017. Prior
to founding Macroeconomic Advisers, Dr. Joel held the position of
senior economist at the World Headquarters of the IBM Corporation
and before that he served with the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York, US. He also has held positions on the faculties of New York
University's Graduate School of Business, the Economics Department
of Washington University, and the Olin School of Business at
Washington University. He is the past president and a fellow of the
National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He is also past
president of the Gateway Association of Business Economists in
Saint Louis. Dr. Joel has many publications to his credit,
including papers written for the Council of Economic Advisers, the
American Council for Capital Formation, and the Center for the
American Study of Business on topics ranging from tax reform to
budget policy to monetary policy to the impact of technology on
productivity. He has testified on these topics before committees in
both the US House of Representatives and the Senate. Dr. Joel has
participated in meetings of the Outside Consultants to Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is a past member of the
Panel of Economic Consultants to the Congressional Budget Office
and is a current member of the advisory committee of the Bureau of
Economic Analysis.Dr. Joel completed his undergraduate degree in economics at
Princeton University, and holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from
Washington University in Saint Louis, United States.
His specialty is translating recent trends in high-frequency
data into a near-term forecast of GDP growth with high statistical
precision. He directs the analysis of the data, authors data
commentaries, runs the current-quarter tracking system, designs and
maintains a population-weighted snowfall database and conducts
additional research that requires a heavy dose of statistical
horsepower. In addition, he writes portions of the forecast reports
and researches a variety of macro topics.Ben received his Ph.D. in economics from Washington University
in April 1998. He is a member and previously served as president of
the St. Louis Gateway Chapter of NABE.
Patrick tracks the investment and construction sectors for the
US Macroeconomic Service and serves on client consulting projects.
He manages long-term forecasts for and co-manages the macroeconomic
model. He joined the company in 1998. Previously, he worked as a
research economist for the Washington State Department of Revenue,
where he later served as a senior economist for the Office of the
Forecast Council of Washington State.He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration and a
Master of Arts in Economics from Louisiana State University, US.
Patrick attained his doctorate in Philosophy from Harvard
University, US. He speaks English and Spanish.
Michael leads the product development for the CECL
implementation by financial institutions. His responsibilities
include the construction of cross-asset class econometric models,
the development of forecasts for Libor, Swap and Corporate Bond
rates, and the construction of simulations of global economic
scenarios to evaluate the P&L of clients' portfolios.Michael joined S&P Global through the 2017 acquisition of
Macroeconomic Advisers. He has worked as an economic consultant on
the forecasting team at Roubini Global Economics and as a research
intern at The Midway Group, a hedge fund specializing in the US
residential mortgage market. He completed his military service as a
sailor at the Hellenic Navy and co-founded and served at the board
of directors of AUEB's Investment and Finance Club, the first ever
finance club in a Greek University. Michael holds a Bachelor of
Science degree in accounting and finance from Athens University of
Economics and Business (AUEB), Greece, and a Master of Arts degree
in economics from New York University (NYU), US.