Role of Emerging Markets
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Understand the role of emerging markets, impacts emerging economies are facing, and risk management strategies being enacted
All countries in emerging Europe will suffer a steep decline in GDP growth in 2020 due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) virus pandemic. For some, the crisis will represent a temporary shock, while others will experience longer-term repercussions.
Key findings about countries facing the highest risks
- Most Emerging Europe countries reacted quickly to the COVID-19 virus outbreak and have avoided a wider spread pandemic, but several stand out as trouble spots, including Russia, Turkey, and Belarus.
- Countries with larger shares of services (particularly tourism) will be especially hard hit by the crisis in 2020 and possibly beyond. Meanwhile, countries with larger manufacturing sectors will take a temporary hit (especially those reliant on automotive exports) but could revive more quickly as external demand recovers.
- Monetary and fiscal policies aimed at mitigating the impact for businesses and households will help to relieve the pressures, but some countries have considerably less ammunition than others.
- Even the strongest countries will see a significant impact on the labor market, as unemployment rises.
Key findings about emerging economies crisis response for their banks
- Eighty emerging economies have enacted measures to combat the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on banks and borrowers.
- The majority of economies have introduced loan support as the main crisis-response measure.
- Loan moratoriums, or loan payment holidays, have been the most prevalent measure enacted thus far.
- Liquidity support, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, and loan guarantees have also been enacted to support lending.
- Learn how to assess credit risk in emerging markets with banking risk solutions
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Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Dr. Behravesh works closely with the company's chief economists on the forecasting process at IHS Markit. Dr. Behravesh and his team have received numerous awards, among them the 2017 Lawrence R. Klein Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy Award and top forecasters by Consensus Economics in 2013. Attaining consistently high annual ranking among US forecasters from The Wall Street Journal, Dr. Behravesh was ranked #3 (out of 56) for 2006, and was the only forecaster to place in the top six for 2003, 2004 and 2006. He frequently is cited by leading business publications, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, Forbes and US News & World Report. He appears regularly on national radio and television programs, including BBC World Business Report, NBC Nightly News, CNN Headline News, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer (PBS), Fox News, CNBC, Bloomberg TV and Radio, All Things Considered and Marketplace on National Public Radio. He is a featured speaker at many of the top global conferences each year, including IHS Markit CERAWeek and the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Dr. Behravesh holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of Pennsylvania, where Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein was his dissertation advisor, and a Bachelor of Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US.
Mr. Wattret has worked as an economist in the financial markets since the early 1990s, initially for HSBC Global Markets. From 2000 onwards, he was the chief market economist for the euro area at BNP Paribas. Prior to joining IHS Markit in 2018, he was a Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard, an independent research provider. A specialist in European economic and policy issues, his 'out of consensus' calls include predicting as early as 2012 that euro area deflation risk would force the European Central Bank to embark on a program of large-scale sovereign debt purchases despite strong opposition within many member states. He has taken a lead role in the presentation of key forecasts and themes to a broad spectrum of clients across Europe, the Americas and Asia, including corporates, banks and institutional and hedge fund-based portfolio managers. A well-known commentator on economic and financial issues, Ken is frequently quoted in the media and appears on various TV and radio channels. He received his honors degree in economics from the University of Sheffield, UK, and post-graduate qualifications from the Chartered Institute of Bankers.
Rajiv previously worked as Director for South-East Asia for The Economist Group. His previous experience includes working for UBS as Executive Director for Asia-Pacific Country Risk and for the Royal Bank of Scotland as an international economist. He has also worked for an international organization, the Commonwealth Secretariat, as a senior economist in the International Capital Markets Department. Rajiv's experience also includes working as a consultant for the United Nations and the Asian Development Bank.Rajiv is a graduate of the London School of Economics, for the B.Sc.Econ.Hons. in Economics, and received his M.Sc. and D.I.C. from Imperial College at London University. Rajiv has published widely on a range of economic, trade and investmentrelated topics, with over 100 published articles. He frequently speaks at international conferences on the global and Asia-Pacific economies, including at World Economic Forum and Euromoney events as well as at United Nations conferences. He regularly appears on international TV programs, including for the BBC, CNBC, Bloomberg, Channel News Asia, CNN and Al Jazeera TV.He is the author of "Future Asia", published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2013, "Asian Megatrends" published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2016 and "Emerging Markets Megatrends" published by Springer/Palgrave Macmillan in 2018.
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