Role of Emerging Markets
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Understand the role of emerging markets, impacts emerging economies are facing, and risk management strategies being enacted
All countries in emerging Europe will suffer a steep decline in GDP growth in 2020 due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) virus pandemic. For some, the crisis will represent a temporary shock, while others will experience longer-term repercussions.
Key findings about countries facing the highest risks
- Most Emerging Europe countries reacted quickly to the COVID-19 virus outbreak and have avoided a wider spread pandemic, but several stand out as trouble spots, including Russia, Turkey, and Belarus.
- Countries with larger shares of services (particularly tourism) will be especially hard hit by the crisis in 2020 and possibly beyond. Meanwhile, countries with larger manufacturing sectors will take a temporary hit (especially those reliant on automotive exports) but could revive more quickly as external demand recovers.
- Monetary and fiscal policies aimed at mitigating the impact for businesses and households will help to relieve the pressures, but some countries have considerably less ammunition than others.
- Even the strongest countries will see a significant impact on the labor market, as unemployment rises.
Key findings about emerging economies crisis response for their banks
- Eighty emerging economies have enacted measures to combat the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on banks and borrowers.
- The majority of economies have introduced loan support as the main crisis-response measure.
- Loan moratoriums, or loan payment holidays, have been the most prevalent measure enacted thus far.
- Liquidity support, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, and loan guarantees have also been enacted to support lending.
- Learn how to assess credit risk in emerging markets with banking risk solutions