Customer Logins

Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.

Customer Logins

United States (US) GDP Growth Forecast

Weak start but positioned for rebound.

While the advance estimate of real US GDP growth in Q1 2017 stood at a paltry 0.7%, the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement released after its 2–3 May meeting echoed the view that the first-quarter weakness was “transitory,” indicating the Fed is on track for two more rate hikes this year. Real GDP growth marked the weakest in three years as consumer spending stalled and inventory accumulation slowed sharply. IHS Markit forecasts that real US GDP growth will rebound sharply in the second quarter to 3.4%, led by consumer spending. Our long-term forecast assumes the Federal Reserve will adjust monetary policy to keep inflation near a 2% target.

To learn more, visit the US Economic Service.

Key US GDP Forecast Drivers

  • Exports and imports have both picked up pace: Exports, in response to the fading effects of the strong dollar, imports in response to stronger domestic demand
  • Housing starts are higher in the near term, elevated shares of new homes offered for sale and sold before construction starts pave the way for future building
  • Business fixed investment posted its strongest growth numbers over 13 quarters during the first quarter and key data suggest it has momentum
  • Consumer spending will remain an engine of projected US economic growth, supported by rising employment, disposable incomes and household wealth. Income tax cuts during 2018 will likely fuel accelerated spending growth and a hike in the personal saving rate.

Experts

Chris G. Christopher, Ph.D., CBE

Executive Director – US and Global Economics, IHS Markit

Joel Prakken, Ph.D.

Chief US Economist and co-head of US Economics, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

Ken Matheny, Ph.D.

Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

Kathleen Navin, CBE

Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

Patrick Newport, Ph.D.

Executive Director - US Economics, IHS Markit

Chris Varvares, CBE

Vice President and co-head of US Economics, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

See how the IHS Markit economics and country risk team works with you

Watch this short video to see how our experts helped a customer strategic planning team choose a Southeast Asian manufacturing location.

Industry Success Stories

Baker Hughes accurately forecasted falling oil prices to enable better strategic business decisions

One of the world’s largest oilfield service providers enhanced the forecasting accuracy of its oil rig count model from 90 to 97.6 percent, predicted the impact of price changes on customer spending and demand for product lines (by leveraging 3,500 factors) and created a model that predicted the deflation of WTI crude oil prices in late 2014.

SEE CASE STUDY

Defense Manufacturer Secures New Opportunities in New Markets

In this brief video, Paul Burton – Director of Research & Analysis for IHS Markit Defence Industry and Budgets – describes how a defense manufacturer overcame austere market conditions to unlock opportunities in emerging markets. Learn how the company used IHS Markit proprietary data and market forecasts, and worked with IHS Markit analysts, to secure a sale in a region where it had never before conducted business.

View Video

XL Catlin “Finds the Good Risks in Difficult Places” and Cuts Costs 20% by Consolidating Research to One Source

A global insurance industry leader brought efficiency to risk selection by standardizing with one information provider across all underwriting decisions. This firm thereby reduced research costs by 20%, established a ‘center of excellence’ internally and fueled growth by gaining insights to write risk in areas where others held back.

Learn more about our customer’s success

Airbus Publishes 20 Year Forecast, "Flying on Demand" – Confirms Strong Growth in Commercial Aviation Markets

This premier aircraft manufacturer produced Flying on Demand, Global Market Forecast 2014-2033, a reference book that provides comprehensive economic, financial and political coverage of 200-plus countries. Stakeholders throughout the commercial airline industry rely on the book’s insights regarding product innovation, production and planning.

Learn more about our customer’s success

Events

IHS Markit Event 23 October 2018

Data Science and Digital Transformation Seminar

How businesses are making the change

Learn More

Follow IHS Markit Economic Country Risk on Twitter

Related Products

Explore

Filter Sort