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United States (US) Economic Forecasts and Risk Ratings

The US economic outlook is one of slow and steady growth consistent with a moderate recovery. The unemployment rate is easing into the level associated with full employment. The economy, however, continues to grapple with several points: An inventories correction, depressed energy-sector capital spending, and downward pressure on growth caused by a worsening trade balance. Nevertheless, the solid performance of domestic demand means a positive outlook for the US economy. IHS Markit predicts US real GDP growth in the remaining three quarters of 2017 will average a stronger 2.7%.

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Medium- and Long-term Forecast

  • Real GDP growth will average 2.2% per year during 2016–46
  • The outlook for inflation remains moderate. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will average 2.4% per year over the forecast period. Core inflation will average 2.0%.
  • Nonfarm business productivity growth averages 1.7% over the forecast period
  • The current-account deficit remains negative over the forecast period, averaging 3.3% of GDP
  • Real oil prices eventually stabilize at about $80–85 per barrel (2009 dollars)
  • The labor market improves over the forecast period, with the unemployment rate eventually settling around 4.7%
  • The federal budget deficit remains in deficit through 2046

Country Risk Rating for the United States

President Donald Trump's administration promises to have a major impact on the domestic political and violent risk operating environment, as Republicans maintain majority control of both Congressional houses. Trump campaigned on a domestic platform highlighting economic disaffection, immigration limitations, and an "America First" foreign policy featuring trade protectionism. Although jihadist attack risk remains, radicalized domestic groups and individuals pose a more imminent threat, with prevention efforts growing less effective. Protests, particularly around police-related violence and the Black Lives Matter movement, are increasing. National security drives foreign policy, with China, Iran and Russia featuring prominently.

A note on our risk ratings: IHS Markit derives country risk ratings for 206 countries, based on six separate ratings in each country: Political, economic, legal, tax, operational and security with 22 detailed sub-aggregate risks. These ratings allow you to quantify risk with greater specificity with a scoring system based on a 0.1-10 logarithmic scale. Seven risk bands, from low to extreme, allow you to compare and contrast risk between countries and regions.

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