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Germany GDP Growth Forecast

Initial growth then a leveling off.

Germany’s real GDP growth has averaged 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) since mid-2013, driven mainly by domestic demand. With key leading indicators at near-six-year highs in March-April 2017, Germany’s economic growth should reach 0.7% q/q in the first quarter, due in part to a weather-related construction sector boost, while full-year, work-day-adjusted growth should increase from 1.8% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017.

IHS Markit expects domestic demand to continue to fuel Germany’s real GDP growth, resting mainly on private and public consumption and on residential construction. By contrast, we believe investment in equipment will recover only moderately as high global levels of uncertainty cause firms to be cautious. Net exports will likely remain a modest burden on GDP growth as import growth accelerates faster than export growth. Industrial production growth should strengthen from 1.0% in 2016 to roughly 3.0% in 2017, as indicated by three-year highs of the output component of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey during February–April. IHS Markit forecasts that Germany’s real GDP growth will peak to 2.0% in 2017-2018, then decline to 1.3% by 2020.

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Germany Real GDP

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Timo Klein

Mr. Klein is responsible for providing economic and risk analyses for the German-speaking countries in Western Europe - specifically Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Luxemburg and Liechtenstein - including modeling and forecasting macroeconomic developments in these countries. He has appeared on Bloomberg and CNBC, providing presentations on central bank policy and economic issues. Mr. Klein has published several research papers on topics relevant to European Economic and Monetary Union and the role of the European Central Bank. In 2004, he joined Global Insight - a firm acquired by IHS Markit, now IHS Markit, in 2008. Previously, he worked as a managing analyst at MMS International, heading the team responsible for Eurozone macroeconomic analysis. Prior to 1999, he was the German economist and Bundesbank watcher, analyzing interactions between German economic and interest rate developments.

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