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AutomotivePowertrain and Compliance

Automotive Compliance Suite

Pathways—and associated costs—to achieve regulatory compliance in China, the European Union, and the United States

As key automotive markets either enact new CO2 and fuel efficiency regulations or re-considering existing ones, automakers are struggling to become or remain compliant. Assessing and achieving regulatory fleet fuel economy compliance can be complex, multi-dimensional and costly. Car manufacturers and suppliers need new insights and intelligence to balance powertrain research and development efforts with market demand against a backdrop of changing business models.

For automakers closing the gap to compliance is critical. For suppliers it’s an opportunity.
  • Identify the gap between the current fleet mix and compliance regulations
  • Gauge current and future fleet-average positions and assess the fines associated for non-compliance
  • Apply various "force compliance" options based on IHS Markit pre-defined pathways and see the likely outcomes
  • Understand the overall investment of the technology required for achieving compliance



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60-86% of automakers are expected to miss compliance targets in the US, EU, and China by 2020

Whether you are looking to achieve CAFE compliance or reduce emissions outputs, the Automotive Compliance Suite from IHS Markit provides comprehensive data and analytics to assess gaps and fines, illustrate pathways to compliance, and outline the corresponding costs.


How large is your compliance gap?

*Based on the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for light-duty trucks and passenger cars

Compliance Solution Modules

The Automotive Compliance Suite from IHS Markit provides comprehensive data and analytics to assess gaps and fines, illustrate pathways to compliance, and outline the corresponding costs.
Compliance+

The IHS Markit Compliance+ module for the EU market provides comprehensive fleet CO2 forecasts, assessments and analytics along with an appropriate ranking of car manufacturers on a yearly basis against their sales-weighted fleet CO2 target performance.

Powered with leading-class intelligence, the dataset enables a contribution breakdown of car manufacturers of their target achievement at vehicle, nameplate, body-type, powertrain design and fuel-type level, and is forecasted through calendar year 2030.

Compliance+ is staged via a Tableau Web Portal and helps you understand the complexity of compliance across four key assessments:

  • Fleet-average CO2 forecast assessment illustrated at various levels to fit clients’ workflow
  • Gap-to-target analysis with penalty assessment breakdowns
  • Illustration of combined CO2 technical, homologated and strategic optimization deployment, providing a NET performance prognosis
  • Contribution analysis at technology, segment, body-type, and fuel-type levels and more

*For the United States, this functionality is included in Compliance Tech

Compliance+ Rolling Short-term Forecast
The new Compliance+ Rolling Short-term Forecast, expected to launch in October 2020, adjusts the IHS Markit baseline sales forecast used in Compliance+ using actual market share (derived from monthly registration data of EU28 market ) to give more realistic powertrain and technology share at the nameplate level based on monthly changes.
 
Offerings:
 
  • Scope: EU28 market, compliance position updated monthly on rolling basis
  • Timeframe: Forecast for current year and next year (e.g. CY 2020 and CY 2021 forecasts for all releases in 2020 (i.e.: From March 2021 it will be 2021 and 2022)).
  • Data versions: Each release provides three sets of forecast data: 
    1. latest baseline forecast which is updated every 6 months (May & November)
    2. latest available monthly forecast which reflects up-to-date available fuel type and powertrain design share actualized based on registration, and
    3. previous monthly forecast for incremental comparison.
  • Fleet-level data: CO2 compliance performance, CO2 target, excess CO2 emissions, and excess emission premiums for each manufacturer/pool.
  • Vehicle-level data: Sales nameplate prognosis by propulsion system design and fuel type.
  • All CO2 compliance performance reported is accounted for super credit, cap, and respective multipliers
Compliance Tech

There are multiple routes to achieve vehicle compliance. The Compliance Tech module lets automakers model three pathways based on IHS Markit pre-defined rules. The module shows automakers where they are at a fleet level – and what technologies to apply to achieve compliance. For suppliers, it identifies automakers in need of their solution. The Compliance Tech module from IHS Markit offers:

  • Optimized technology pathways based on efficiency bundles to achieve fuel or CO2 emissions targets
  • Current headline technology landscape and possible future technology roadmaps relating to vehicle energy reduction vs powertrain efficiency improvement
  • Energy Walk for the only plausible option that enables an automaker to meet target
  • Rolled up fleet compliance for all three technology pathways—mechanical technologies, electrification, and fleet mix/credits—assessed for regulated years up through 2030

Compliance Co$t

The Compliance Co$t module enables financial planners to understand the overall investment of the technology required for achieving CO2 compliance based on the three specified routes outlined in the Compliance Tech module.

The cost estimates are derived using appropriate “cost model” data points aggregated to investment into the vehicle platform, nameplate and compliance parent level on a year-on-year basis.

  • The Compliance Co$t module allows financial analysts to comprehend the overall investment on technology required for achieving CO2 compliance based on three specified routes: mechanical technologies, electrification, and fleet mix/credits
  • Cost estimates on technology investments are derived with appropriate “cost model” data points aggregated to investment on vehicle platform, nameplate and compliance parent level on year-on-year basis
  • All cost data points on efficiency improvement technology options are modelled and forecasted using IHS Markit data points, covering exogenous (market specific) and endogenous (OEM specific) factors affecting the cost of investment on a technology
  • The Compliance Co$t module enables robust and quick investment choice options for early Product planning phases with an oversight on competitor value for money compliance routes

See how all the Compliance Suite components come together

Experts

Andrew Fulbrook

Mr. Fulbrook is responsible for managing the global powertrain team and forecasts. He supervises future global product program intelligence and market analysis, future technologies and trends assessments, and qualitative consulting activities surrounding powertrain electrification. Prior to joining IHS Markit, he worked extensively in the area of European powertrain and component research. He is widely quoted in European and global automotive publications, is often invited to provide keynote speeches and has written multiple editorial contributions over the years.Mr. Fulbrook holds a Higher National Diploma with Merit in Mechatronics, including Higher Mathematics, as well as a National Diploma in Engineering Science, both from Brooklands College, Surrey, England, UK.

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Vijay Subramanian

Mr. Subramanian is a Global lead for CO2 compliance business initiatives and forecast product offerings for IHS Markit automotive team on the subjects of GHG, CAFE compliance, CO2 forecasting, and Cost / Investment forecasting. This also includes the regulatory impact assessment of car manufacturers investment and powertrain portfolio trends to meet competitiveness and compliance. Extensive experience on Climate change transportation policy for Europe, China, and NAFTA market and its contribution to Net Zero and Circular economy.Mr. Subramanian earned a Master of Engineering degree in 2004 and served in numerous roles with major manufacturers like Caterpillar, Chrysler, Jaguar Land Rover, and Changan before joining IHS Markit. He also served as a technology leader to manage cross-functional initiatives on vehicle portfolio optimization, cost-benefit technology selection and product planning to set fuel economy and energy management targets to meet regulation targets.Mr. Subramanian is also well known within the auto industry for his contribution to news articles, whitepapers, press, conferences, panels, and speaking engagements around GHG/CO2 regulation for China, Europe, and US market.He is a subject matter expert for the IHS Markit Automotive team on the topic of NetZero / Sustainability / Climate Change and resilience / Smart and sustainable cities / GHG/ Sustainability / Policy and regulation/ CO2 Compliance/ Cost Forecasting /Powertrain and Electrification /Energy Management.

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Events

IHS Markit Webinar 22 November 2021

日本の販売生産市場展望 | Japan Sales and Production Mark (...)

日本の販売生産市場展望

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Industry Tradeshow 02 November 2021

AAPEX 2021

IHS Markit will be exhibiting at AAPEX 2021 in boo (...)

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IHS Markit Webinar 25 October 2021

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South Korea Light Vehicles Sales Analysis for 2021 (...)

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