China Economic Forecasts and Risk Ratings

The government's high-profile anti-corruption drive will continue at least until the next Party Congress scheduled in the fall of 2017, further strengthening Xi Jinping's hold on the party. The population’s increased use of social media combined with a slowing economy will likely catalyze more strikes, while land disputes might decline because of pending land-tenure reforms. On the external front, the Trump administration's proposed punitive tariffs on Chinese imports and taxes on American companies manufacturing in China, although highly unlikely, would prompt China to retaliate by tightening its regulatory norms against foreign companies. The Trump administration's confirmation of the "One-China" policy, in the meantime, reduces the risk of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait.

A note on our risk ratings: IHS Markit derives country risk ratings for 206 countries, based on six separate ratings in each country: Political, economic, legal, tax, operational and security with 22 detailed sub-aggregate risks. These ratings allow you to quantify risk with greater specificity with a scoring system based on a 0.1-10 logarithmic scale. Seven risk bands, from low to extreme, allow you to compare and contrast risk between countries and regions.