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Brazil GDP Growth Forecast

The end of quarterly GDP declines

In contrast to 2016, when Brazil’s real GDP contracted 3.6%, recent recovery signals now point to slow but steady long-term economic growth for Latin America’s largest economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for manufacturing reached 49.6 in March 2017. Although these figures show Brazil is still in contraction (below 50), this is the best result since February 2015, indicating the country may soon exit the recession. A jump in the production of capital and durable consumption goods has driven this growth. In addition, the monthly index of economic activity (MIEA) in January and February 2017 showed strong expansion, which is expected to continue for through the first quarter and would end 11 consecutive quarterly declines.

IHS Markit forecasts that Brazil’s real GDP will contract slightly in early 2017 before stabilizing and then growing 0.6% for the year as a whole, with forecasted growth of 2.0% in 2018.

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Brazil Real GDP Growth, year-on-year percent change by quarter, 2016-2018

Brazil Real GDP, historic to 1996 and forecast to 2041, percent change

Brazil Nominal Per-Capita GDP, Current USD, Historic to 1995 and Forecast to 2040

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