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Brazil GDP Growth Forecast

The end of quarterly GDP declines

In contrast to 2016, when Brazil’s real GDP contracted 3.6%, recent recovery signals now point to slow but steady long-term economic growth for Latin America’s largest economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for manufacturing reached 49.6 in March 2017. Although these figures show Brazil is still in contraction (below 50), this is the best result since February 2015, indicating the country may soon exit the recession. A jump in the production of capital and durable consumption goods has driven this growth. In addition, the monthly index of economic activity (MIEA) in January and February 2017 showed strong expansion, which is expected to continue for through the first quarter and would end 11 consecutive quarterly declines.

IHS Markit forecasts that Brazil’s real GDP will contract slightly in early 2017 before stabilizing and then growing 0.6% for the year as a whole, with forecasted growth of 2.0% in 2018.

Visit Advanced Country Analysis & Forecast Service to learn more.

Brazil Real GDP Growth, year-on-year percent change by quarter, 2016-2018

Brazil Real GDP, historic to 1996 and forecast to 2041, percent change

Brazil Nominal Per-Capita GDP, Current USD, Historic to 1995 and Forecast to 2040

Experts

Rafael Amiel, Ph.D.

Dr. Amiel is a director in the Economics and Country Risk Group for Global Insight at IHS Markit. He brings 20 years of international experience in macroeconomic and sovereign risk analysis of Latin America gained over a long career tracking economic developments and business cycles of the region with a focus on risks for medium- and long-term investment. He coordinates the group's analysis and forecasts and is responsible for reporting on Peru, Mexico, and Brazil. As a sovereign risk expert, he closely monitors and tracks repayment capacity of Latin American economies, assessing both short- and long-term risks. Prior to joining IHS Markit, he served as the country risk manager for Hamilton Bank. Previously, he was a research associate at the Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, US.Dr. Amiel earned a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Universidad de Lima in Peru. He completed his Master of Arts in Business and Economics at the State University of New York - Stony Brook, and went on to attain his doctoral degree in economics at FIU, where he served as an adjunct professor in the Department of Economics.

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Carlos Caicedo

Mr. Caicedo analyses and forecasts political and violent risks in Latin America. Bringing more than 20 years of experience, Mr. Caicedo shares his expertise in policymaking and its impact on energy and infrastructure in Brazil, the regulatory outlook for Argentina, as well as fiscal and monetary policy across the region. He also covers resource nationalism and the implications in the region for the oil and mining industries. He is an expert in both the Colombia internal conflict and the terrorism threat posed by Mexico's drug cartels. He is regularly interviewed by the media, including CNN, CNBC, Sky News and Bloomberg, among others. Fluent in Spanish, Portuguese and English, he has recently presented to conferences about political risk in Argentina and throughout Latin America and the risks to cargo in Brazil and Argentina. Recent speaking engagements were: the ISMA's conference in Bogota on Drug cartels and crime trends in Latin America and the Reactions North America Insurance conference in New York. Mr. Caicedo's university degrees include a Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy and History from the Saint Thomas Aquinas University, Bogota, Colombia, Master of Arts in Latin America Area Studies from University College London (UCL), UK, and a Post-graduate Certificate in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London, UK.

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