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Our Materials Price Index (MPI) rose 0.5% last week, signaling
the end of a two-week commodity price retreat. The rally was
narrow, with only four sub-indexes increasing. Indeed, the strength
in the MPI last week appears to be more of a pause in the commodity
price retreat as opposed to the beginning of a new rally -
fundamentals remain supportive of our range bound outlook. Oil
markets were the main driver behind the rally last week, where
prices rose 3.4% on the back of geopolitical developments.
Oil prices have increased at a rapid clip over the past week and
a half, set off by OPEC's decision to increase production by 1.0
MMb/d, beginning this month. This increase in production was
smaller than markets expected, causing prices to rally by over 6%
the day of the announcement. Further geopolitical developments
subsequently added more fuel to the rally. A power struggle in
Libya has made it unclear if the internationally recognized
government or rebel forces will be handling oil exports, while the
United States is threatening to sanction all countries that do not
eliminate all Iranian oil imports by November 4th. While
geopolitics have been the main driver behind the price rally,
fundamentals have also been supportive - oil inventories in the US
declined by over 10 million barrels last week. As oil prices
increase, the cost impact is being felt downstream, as the 3.6%
rise in freight rates illustrates.
Despite the temporary bump in commodity prices, global
conditions remain indicative of range bound commodity prices. The
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell slightly from May, coming in
at 51.0. The index has now been around this level for four
consecutive months, indicating conditions remain weaker than they
were at the start of the year. While decelerating growth in China
is the cornerstone of our outlook, it appears that growth
conditions are peaking across the globe. Industrial production fell
in Japan in May, while a revision in the United Kingdom's GDP
report last week confirmed that growth slowed in the first quarter.
With tighter monetary policy and decelerating global growth ahead,
we anticipate further commodity price declines.