Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
Our Materials Price Index (MPI) fell 1.3% last week, breaking a
streak of three consecutive gains. The retreat in commodity prices
was widespread, with seven of the MPI's ten sub-indexes falling.
The MPI is still some 19% higher than in July 2017, but
highlighting the change that has come over markets since the end of
2017, commodity prices as measured by our index are down 5% since
the end of December.
Falling oil prices were a major driver behind last week's MPI
decline, falling 4.2%. Lumber prices were also a significant source
of weakness, declining 5.5%. A surprise build in US crude
inventories pushed oil prices lower. Politics was also a factor
behind the drop - the Trump Administration indicated it may
consider granting waivers to countries that import Iranian crude, a
partial walk back from their position that all countries must stop
importing Iranian crude by November 4th. Lumber prices fell as
additional supply came into the market. We expect prices to
continue falling from May's record levels as the market becomes
better supplied in the quarters ahead.
The softness in commodity markets, especially since early June,
reflects a growing unease that global growth has peaked at the same
time that trade tensions continue to grow. Recent data from China
and the Eurozone, both major sources of physical consumption, have
not been reassuring. US dollar appreciation has also not helped the
commodity complex. The net effect has been to trigger general
selling, the only solace at this point being that some markets now
appear to be technically oversold. This may limit a sharper decline
in the third quarter. The larger conclusion, however, is that rally
in commodity prices that began back in January 2016 appears to be
over.
Posted 26 July 2018 by Cole Hassay, Economist II, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit
