Week Ahead Economic Review: Week of 2 December
• Worldwide PMI survey releases for manufacturing and services
• US employment report including non-farm payrolls
• Central bank meetings in India and Australia
The week kicks off with worldwide manufacturing PMIs on Monday, followed by services and composite PMIs mid-week and rounding off with US non-farm payrolls. The heavy data flow will help steer our understanding of fourth quarter economic growth, jobs and inflation trends, thereby providing guidance on likely future policy at key central banks, including this week's policy decisions from India and Australia.
Updated worldwide PMI data for November will be eagerly awaited after October's numbers showed the global economy losing further momentum. The JPMorgan Global PMI™ (compiled by IHS Markit) fell to its lowest since February 2016, registering one of the weakest expansions since the global financial crisis. Although manufacturing showed further tentative signs of improving, recent months have seen signs of slower service sector growth. Flash November PMIs pointed to a near-stalled Eurozone, with falling output seen in Japan, the UK and Australia. Growth picked up in the US but still hinted strongly at weak fourth quarter GDP.
The lacklustre survey data also point to a slowing hiring trend in the US, so November's non-farm payroll report could disappoint. However, recent job numbers have shown encouraging resilience in the face of economic growth and trade war worries (see page 3 for more US highlights).
In Europe, the PMIs are accompanied by official data on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales, with the former of particular interest as Europe's largest economy skirts with recession (page 4).
In Asia Pacific, China PMI data will give an important steer on the likelihood of further stimulus from China's authorities. Meanwhile, policy action this week comes from the central banks of Australia and India, both of which will be eagerly awaited to gauge policymaker concerns over slowing growth. While both banks are expected to loosen policy further, only India looks ready to cut this week, with Australia's central bank more likely to wait until early next year (see page 5).
Download the report for the full content which includes:
• Global overview
• Key diary events
• US week ahead
• Europe week ahead
• Asia Pacific week ahead
President Jokowi plans for a new Indonesian capital city by 2024
Explaining US manufacturing survey differences
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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- UK manufacturing output hit as covid wave limits staff and component availability
- Flash Eurozone PMI signals fastest economic growth for 21 years
- Flash Australia PMI signals economy in contraction amid widespread lockdowns
- Understanding … PMI suppliers' delivery times: A widely used indicator of supply delays, capacity constraints and price pressures
- Taiwan's export boom comes off the boil
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