Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 9 September 2019
- ECB policy meeting
- US inflation and retail sales to add to Fed guidance
- UK GDP and labour market updates
- China, Japan and India data to steer policy
- Special report on Hong Kong SAR
With global economic growth reported to have slowed closer to three-year lows in August, according the latest PMI surveys, the markets will be looking for signs of further stimulus. While the ECB looks set to unleash further monetary easing, data updates from the US, UK, China, Japan and India will all also help guide on appetite for further stimulus around the world.
The ECB has paved the way for fresh stimulus at its September 12th meeting, and markets are merely speculating over the size and nature of the measures to be implemented. It's a different story in the UK, where the Bank of England retains the view that interest rates will need to rise in the absence of a no-deal Brexit. However, new labour market data and the first official data for GDP in the third quarter could see more calls for the Bank of England to support the economy, as recent survey data have pointed to a risk of recession. Brexit developments will of course also continue to dominate the markets.
Meanwhile, with markets expecting the FOMC to cut US rates again at the end of the month, upcoming inflation, retail sales and consumer confidence numbers will give hints as to consumer resilience and the economic outlook amid the ongoing trade wars. The official releases come on the heels of PMI survey data pointing to US GDP growth slowing in the third quarter amid an intensifying, trade-led, manufacturing downturn.
In Asia, the trade war impact and - in the case of Hong Kong SAR - political unrest will remain under scrutiny. See our special report on Hong Kong SAR. Lending data for China will meanwhile give hints as to the extent to which domestic stimulus may be offsetting trade frictions, while the health of the Japanese economy ahead of a planned sales tax rise will be sought from a GDP update. Inflation and industrial production numbers will also be released for India, where interest rates are now down to nine-year lows.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- APAC: China's Hong Kong SAR economy slides into recession
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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