Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 9 November 2020
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
- GDP updates from the Eurozone, UK, Russia, Hong Kong SAR, Malaysia, Philippines and Japan
- US inflation, Eurozone and UK jobs data
- Global business outlook surveys
As markets seek direction after US presidential elections, the focus will shift back to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and whether governments can avoid second-dip downturns. While PMI data indicated that the global economic recovery remained resilient up to October (see special report and more national analysis on our commentary page), major cracks were already appearing in countries where the authorities have instigated renewed lockdown measures. In particular, growth in the eurozone has stalled and the UK - also dealing with Brexit - saw growth weaken substantially.
Fortunately, robust growth continued to be seen in the US, China and other emerging markets, notably India and Brazil, but COVID infection rates will inevitably be a big steer on the markets as a guide to future economic growth projections. Some further insights into how companies are assessing their prospects for the coming year will be available via the IHS Markit Global Business Outlook survey, published Tuesday.
Other releases in the US include inflation and job market numbers, which should help steer policymaking. Inflation has shown some signs of picking up, but more worrying has been indications that the labour market recovery could be fading.
In Europe, GDP and labour market statistics are updated for both the Eurozone and UK, as well as higher frequency industry production and trade data for both economies. The data are likely to show economies rebounding in the third quarter but the focus now shifts to the extent to whether renewed downturns can be avoided in the fourth quarter, and the extent to which the all-important labour markets have remained resilient in the face of the pandemic.
In Asia, GDP data for Malaysia, Philippines, Hong Kong SAR and Japan are all reported, though China's credit and foreign investment figures, as well as Japan's machinery orders, will also gain attention as more timely guides to economic recovery trends. The latest monetary policy decision is meanwhile awaited from New Zealand.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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