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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
GDP updates from the Eurozone, UK, Russia, Hong Kong SAR,
Malaysia, Philippines and Japan
US inflation, Eurozone and UK jobs data
Global business outlook surveys
As markets seek direction after US presidential elections, the
focus will shift back to the economic impact of the COVID-19
pandemic and whether governments can avoid second-dip downturns.
While PMI data indicated that the global economic recovery remained
resilient up to October (see special report and more national
analysis on our commentary page), major cracks were already
appearing in countries where the authorities have instigated
renewed lockdown measures. In particular, growth in the eurozone
has stalled and the UK - also dealing with Brexit - saw growth
weaken substantially.
Fortunately, robust growth continued to be seen in the US, China
and other emerging markets, notably India and Brazil, but COVID
infection rates will inevitably be a big steer on the markets as a
guide to future economic growth projections. Some further insights
into how companies are assessing their prospects for the coming
year will be available via the IHS Markit Global Business Outlook
survey, published Tuesday.
Other releases in the US include inflation and job market
numbers, which should help steer policymaking. Inflation has shown
some signs of picking up, but more worrying has been indications
that the labour market recovery could be fading.
In Europe, GDP and labour market statistics are updated for both
the Eurozone and UK, as well as higher frequency industry
production and trade data for both economies. The data are likely
to show economies rebounding in the third quarter but the focus now
shifts to the extent to whether renewed downturns can be avoided in
the fourth quarter, and the extent to which the all-important
labour markets have remained resilient in the face of the
pandemic.
In Asia, GDP data for Malaysia, Philippines, Hong Kong SAR and
Japan are all reported, though China's credit and foreign
investment figures, as well as Japan's machinery orders, will also
gain attention as more timely guides to economic recovery trends.
The latest monetary policy decision is meanwhile awaited from New
Zealand.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
