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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
Inflation updates will be due from the US and
China in the coming week alongside a series of Q2 GDP
releases. Several Fed members will also
be speaking over the course of next week while a monetary
policy meeting will be held in the Philippines.
Attention turns to the July inflation updates across the world's
largest economies, US and China, for an assessment of the price
pressures at the start of Q3. July PMI showed the global economy
sustaining strong growth, but supply constraints continued to grow
at an unprecedented rate, dampening growth and pushing
input cost inflation higher.
Besides supply constraints, July PMI data also alluded to the
detrimental effects of the Delta variant spread. As global COVID-19
cases crossed the 200 million mark, the weakening economic data are
a reminder that the pandemic remains the number one risk to
economies in terms of both slower growth and inflation. Mainland
China, which had initially been first-in/first-out from COVID-19,
reported the highest number of local cases since January and saw
new movement restrictions in place, speaking to the threat of the
latest wave. The trend with global COVID-19 cases will be worth
scrutinising in the coming weeks for potential further disruption
to economic conditions.
Finally, a number of Q2 GDP data will also be released next
week, including in the UK, where June PMI data showed signs of
slowing growth despite easing of restrictions. Several Asian
economies will likewise update Q2 GDP figures.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
