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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
Consumer inflation numbers for the US, China and Germany
Trade updates for China, Japan and Germany
UK fourth quarter GDP, eurozone production
The week ahead sees updates to consumer price inflation for the
US, China and Germany, which will be eagerly assessed for any signs
of rising industrial prices feeding through to households. Trade
data from China, Japan and Germany will also be eyed for evidence
of supply chain bottlenecks subduing trade flows. Other notable
data releases include UK GDP and eurozone industrial production.
Central bank policy meetings are meanwhile scheduled in Sweden, the
Philippines, Mexico and Russia, plus there's a Mansion House speech
from Bank of England Governor Bailey which will be scrutinised in
particular for the Bank's appetite for negative interest rates.
For the US, the economic release calendar is topped by inflation
data, which follow survey data pointing to cost pressures reaching
the highest for over a decade amid severe supply chain disruptions.
Jobless claims, job openings and consumer confidence data will also
be monitored for updates to the health of the labour market and
households, while budget announcements for 2021 will steer spending
guidance on the Biden administration's first year.
In Europe, industrial production and trade data take centre
stage in the eurozone, with Germany, Italy and France reporting
December production numbers ahead of full regional estimates on
Friday, with the former also releasing eagerly-awaited export
statistics. The UK meanwhile releases its first estimate of fourth
quarter GDP. The Bank of England now expects a decline to have been
narrowly avoided, but prospects are looking worse for the first
quarter.
Asia Pacific data releases in the week ahead likewise include
some important trade numbers, notably out of China and Japan. Both
also issue producer price data plus consumer inflation. A key focus
will be on the extent to which trade flows are being affected by
the pandemic and associated supply constraints. Similarly, consumer
price inflation data will be eyed for insights into the extent to
which higher industrial prices are feeding though to consumers.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
