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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
This quarter growth signals sought from industrial production
and trade updates
Policy decisions in the eurozone and Malaysia
UK, Japan, eurozone and Russia GDP data
US inflation and jobless claims in focus
After signs from the
latest business surveys that the
global recovery accelerated in August as economies continued to
open up after COVID-19 lockdowns, confirmation of solid starts to
the third quarter will be sought from industrial production numbers
for the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain, as well as trade numbers for
China, Taiwan, Germany and the UK. New estimates of GDP data for
Japan, Russia and the eurozone are meanwhile expected to confirm
second quarter woes.
In the US, inflation data are updated alongside labour market
indicators in the form of jobless claims and job openings. There
have been some signs of input cost inflation starting to pick up in
the US PMI surveys, though policymakers have shifted their focus
away from price stability towards sustaining the recovery, meaning
it will be the labour market that likely holds most attention. The
weekly jobless claims numbers in particular will be eyed for the
ongoing impact of lockdowns, which were tightened on average across
the US in August but are now easing again (page 3).
In terms of policy action, the latest ECB monetary policy
decision will be eagerly awaited for clues as to the possibility of
further stimulus later this year amid signs of falling prices and
hints of a
stumbling recovery as Italy and Spain tightened lockdowns. In
the UK, July's GDP data will likely show the economy surging,
though
recent survey data have hinted that growth could fade after the
initial rebound (see page 4 plus our special eurozone inflation
report on page 6).
In Asia Pacific, the import and export data published for China
and Taiwan will be in particular focus as recovery hopes for the
region are dependent on trade flows picking up, having been curbed
by pandemic supply chain disruptions and weak demand. China's
inflation data, Japan's machinery orders and Indian industrial
production are also notable releases. Malaysia central bank
watchers meanwhile have mixed views on whether further stimulus
will be announced at the forthcoming monthly meeting (page 5).
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
