Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 7 October 2019
- US-China tariffs set to rise pending talks
- EU summit Brexit deadline
- US and China industrial production and retail sales data, plus China's GDP
- UK labour market, inflation and retail sales
- Official Eurozone manufacturing update
- Special report on Airbus and US tariffs
The week ahead includes a key Brexit deadline and on-going US-China tariff developments, with US tariffs set to rise to from 25% to 30% on $250bn of Chinese goods pending the outcome of talks this week.
Signs of current tariff and trade war impact will meanwhile be gleaned not only from China's GDP, trade and industrial production data, due out during the week, but also from US production and manufacturing output data. Both economies also release retail sales data, which will be eyed for signs of the extent to which trade wars could be spilling over to weaker household spending. As such, the data will help guide the next policy moves in terms of stimulus both in the US and China.
After tariffs, the next key area of uncertainty in the global economy is arguably Brexit, and the coming week could see some major developments. Hopes of a Brexit deal have risen, but unless a deal is agreed at the EU council on 17-18 October, the UK government will be legally obliged to ask for an Article 50 extension beyond the 31st October leaving date and general election speculation will intensify. Sterling could be in for a volatile week. Meanwhile, official labour market, retail sales and inflation data will be updated in the UK to give further guidance on the health of the economy after mixed data in recent weeks.
Eurozone industrial production and trade data will also give clues as to the severity of the industrial squeeze in the single currency bloc.
Other notable releases include China's inflation and fixed asset investment, Singapore's GDP, US housing starts and Japan's inflation update. Monetary policy action comes from South Korea's central bank meeting and the minutes from the RBI's prior meeting.
Our special report looks at how fresh US tariffs are likely to affect the European economy.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Airbus and US tariffs
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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