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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special
Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the
article.
Monetary policy meetings in the Eurozone, Brazil and
Canada
GDP for Japan, the Eurozone, UK and Russia
US and China inflation rates
Industrial production and trade updates
After PMI surveys showed global growth slowing in November,
further clues of economic trends in the fourth quarter will be
scoured from a host of industrial production and trade data. Third
quarter GDP figures are also updated for Japan, the Eurozone and
Russia, while the UK issues monthly GDP numbers for October.
Inflation numbers for the US, China and Germany will also be
closely watched, albeit with policymakers likely to 'look through'
any signs of upward price pressures in favour of providing support
to help sustain recoveries. The ECB, Bank of Canada and the Central
Bank of Brazil all meet to set interest rates during the week.
Brazil's central bank is eyed for change to its forward guidance
after inflation spiked higher and the recovery showed signs of
progressing well, though the bank sees the rise in prices as
temporary. Meanwhile in Canada the central bank sees the
possibility of a faster than previously expected recovery thanks to
vaccine developments, but has also raised the spectre of a further
rate cut if infection rates rise again.
In the eurozone, the ECB has fueled expectations that more
stimulus could be in play. PMI data have disappointed and President
Lagarde has stressed downside risks to the fourth quarter.
In the UK, markets will be watching Brexit talks and will also
scrutinise the monthly GDP data for October after PMI numbers
showed the economy being supported in part by pre-Brexit
preparations.
In the US, we may see some upward pressure in consumer and
producer price data, but the Fed's new policy framework allows a
temporary inflation overshoot. Instead interest will focus on
whether the economic recovery is being sustained via updates to
consumer confidence, jobless claims, mortgage applications, the
NFIB survey and consumer credit.
In Asia, China's updated trade, inflation, money supply and new
loan data will be scoured for confirmatory signs that the recovery
is accelerating after PMI data showed the strongest growth for over
a decade. Japan's GDP data are meanwhile expected to show only a
modest, partial recovery during the third quarter.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
