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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
While official data such as trade and industrial production
released in the coming week will give important steers as to the
strength of economic rebounds around the world midway through the
third quarter, service sector PMI surveys will add further insights
into how these recoveries have been sustained into September. While
manufacturing remained resilient globally in September, the
worry is that consumer-facing sectors are being hit once again by
tightening COVID-19 restrictions in many countries.
Global detailed
sector PMI numbers will also be updated to reveal which
industries are being the hardest hit from the continuing virus
crisis.
An eye will also be kept on the US presidential election, with
the week seeing Pence and Harris face off in the Vice Presidential
debate, while monetary policy watchers will monitor the Reserve
Bank of Australia meeting and FOMC minutes.
In the US, PMI data will reveal the extent to which the
non-manufacturing sector has fared amid the ongoing pandemic and
uncertainty caused by an ever-closer presidential election.
Flash PMIs showed the economy maintaining robust momentum, but
also found future growth expectations to have waned amid growing
concerns about the outlook, especially in the service sector. Trade
numbers will also be eagerly awaited after the last figures showed
the US deficit rising to the highest since 2008, as will the
minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The latter follows a meeting in
which policymakers showed increased dovishness in relation to
long-term low interest rates (see page 3).
In Europe, a picture of robust UK growth has contrasted with a
eurozone economy slowing to near stagnation, according to the
September flash PMIs. Final service sector PMI numbers will add
more colour to the emerging picture, as will industrial production
numbers for Germany, Italy, France and Spain, as well as a GDP
update for the UK (page 4).
In Asia, we'll be looking for clues as to the strength of the
Chinese and Japanese economic recoveries via services PMIs.
Detailed PMI numbers for Asia as a whole, export data for a number
of countries and Japan's machinery orders are also updated (page
5).
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
