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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
RBA and RBI rate setting meetings, plus FOMC and ECB
minutes
Service sector PMIs will dominate the week alongside some key
updates to trade, industrial production and inflation. The week
also sees interest rate decisions at central banks in Australia,
India and Poland, while the ECB and FOMC release minutes from their
last meetings. The IMF's spring meeting also commences.
Policy is expected to remain on hold when the RBA and RBI meet
to set interest rates for Australia and India respectively, despite
some encouraging signs from recent economic data and hints of
higher price pressures building. Both central banks are keen to
ensure policy remains accommodative while COVID-19 uncertainties
and restrictions persist, with India in particular concerned about
the economic impact from further waves of infections. Elsewhere in
Asia Pacific, China's economy also comes under the spotlight with
updates to its service sector PMI and inflation data.
The ECB policy meeting accounts will meanwhile provide more
colour on its recent decision to step up asset purchases amid
concerns over rising bond yields, but it's the FOMC minutes that
will garner particular attention. Analysts are eager to assess just
how concerned Fed policymakers are about rising bond yields and
when US monetary policy may start being tapered. PMI data from IHS
Markit and the ISM will give fresh insights in the performance of
the service sector, which flash numbers suggest performed well in
March, helping the US lead the developed world's recovery. Other
key US data releases include US factory orders, trade, job openings
and producer prices.
Elsewhere eurozone unemployment and industrial production for
Germany and France will be under scrutiny after PMI numbers showed
manufacturing booming in the single currency area. The eurozone's
service sector has lagged the factory recovery, but even here signs
of stabilisation have appeared, so the final PMIs will also be eyed
for further signs of greater than expected resilience amid further
waves of infections.
Importantly, the release of all PMI data during the week will
give an updated view on global economic trends, after February's
surveys showed the recovery gaining momentum but price pressures at
the highest for over a decade. Detailed global PMI numbers will
also highlight industry winners and losers.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
