Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 4 November 2019
- Service sector PMI surveys updated for October to provide insight into global growth trends
- Bank of England MPC meeting
- Germany's industrial production
- Indonesia and Philippines GDP
- Special reports on the potential for meaningful fiscal stimulus in the eurozone, and India's shadow banking crisis
The dovish tilt to global policy making continued in October with the US Fed cutting rates for the third time, but whether this represents the end of the easing cycle could be dependent on how economic growth fares in the fourth quarter. In this respect, global PMI data will give a comprehensive picture of how the world economy started the closing quarter of 2019.
While national economic trends will naturally be of importance to policy makers, the global environment has been increasingly cited as a key source of concern at key central banks, helping persuade rate-setters to add more stimulus. The global PMI signalled the weakest expansion for three years in September, and preliminary data for October so far suggest little scope for any uplift. The flash PMIs were consistent with only modest US GDP growth, with a weakening service sector offsetting signs of life from manufacturing. The eurozone meanwhile stagnated and Japan contracted for the first time in three years. The final PMI data will provide a far more comprehensive global picture. Of note, the UK services PMI is released as the Bank of England meets to set policy amid growing political unease in the UK.
In the eurozone, final PMI data and key industrial numbers for Germany will give a steer to the region's economic health, with a risk of Germany slipping in to recession likely to fuel debate on the need for stimulus. We therefore look at how potential there is for a boost from fiscal stimulus in our special paper.
In Asia, the PMI surveys will be in particular focus for signs of trade war impact and fresh news on Hong Kong SAR's recession. Monetary policy decisions are meanwhile awaited for from Australia, Malaysia and Thailand, while Indonesia and the Philippines will release their third quarter GDP data.
Our special report from Asia this week assesses the severity of India's shadow banking crisis.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Eurozone fiscal space: how much is there and is it a game changer?
- India's shadow banking crisis: how severe is its economic impact?
- PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
- Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
- APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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