Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 30 September 2019
- Worldwide manufacturing and services PMI surveys
- US non-farm payrolls, employment report
- UK GDP, eurozone inflation
- Policy decisions in Australia and India
- Special reports on how the ECB would react to an oil price spike, and India's corporate tax cut
The week ahead starts with PMI™ surveys and ends with the US monthly employment report, providing a wealth of data for markets to digest and gain insight into economic trends at the end of the third quarter.
The PMI surveys will provide key signals of worldwide growth, inflation and hiring trends at the end of the third quarter. The numbers will be especially eagerly awaited as policymakers at many central banks, including the US Fed, have become increasingly concerned over the global economic environment. The August surveys showed global growth slipping to one of the slowest seen for three years, with signs of weakness spreading from manufacturing to services, in part due to softening labour markets. Price gauges meanwhile also eased to three-year lows.
In the US, the PMIs from IHS Markit and ISM showed manufacturing struggling in August but the ISM sent a stronger picture for services. September updates will therefore help clarify growth momentum at the end of the third quarter, and will be accompanied by non-farm payrolls and wage growth data, as well as trade and factory orders, all of which will help guide Fed policy. Shutdown fears could also steer markets.
In Europe, PMI updates will be eyed for signs of recession risk in Germany, Italy and the UK, the latter also seeing updated estimates of second quarter GDP. Business investment data will be scrutinised for signs of Brexit impact. Eurozone inflation data will support the case for further ECB stimulus. We also look at how the ECB would react to higher oil prices.
In Asia, China's Golden Week means the only data releases are the PMIs, but Japan in particular sees a wealth of key indicators ahead of the impending sales tax rise. Monetary policy decisions will come from central banks in both Australia and India. The latter has seen recent corporate tax cuts, which we expect to drive faster growth.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- How would the ECB react to a surge in oil prices?
- India's corporate tax reforms boost economic competitiveness
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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Our Global Business Outlook survey, released today, signalled worsening hiring and investment plans in June, and th… https://t.co/u51u0UVqMJ