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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special
Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Final PMIs covering over 40 economies eyed for broader economic
impact of COVID-19
China PMI surveys
US nonfarm payrolls
Eurozone confidence surveys
Singapore and India monetary policy
Final PMI data will be keenly anticipated for the extent of the
broader economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
outbreak around the world after flash PMI data showed business
activity in major economies slumped in March. China PMI updates in
particular will be scrutinised for signs of recovery amid reports
of an accelerated increase in the number of industrial firms
resuming work. Meanwhile, the focus on the recent US dollar
strength will remain due to US liquidity concerns as well as the
impact on emerging markets that hold excessive dollar-denominated
debt.
In the US, with the flash IHS Markit US PMI reporting the
steepest downturn since the global financial crisis during March,
markets will look to forthcoming data, including non-farm payrolls,
regional Fed surveys and the ISM PMI results for virus impact in
March, even as they eye fresh developments on the massive fiscal
stimulus plan that has now moved to a vote in the lower house on
Friday 27 March, after being unanimously approved by the
Senate.
The flash Eurozone and UK PMIs had meanwhile shown business
activity crumbling across Europe, as expanding lockdowns and
stricter anti-virus measures were implemented in response to a
widening spread of COVID-19. Analysts will closely monitor upcoming
data that include Euro area surveys on consumer and business
confidence, while also eyeing any fresh policy responses to stem
the negative COVID-19 impact on economic activity.
In Asia, the March PMI updates will come on the heels of
February numbers which had indicated a much sharper contraction in
Asian manufacturing output, primarily led by China. Singapore and
India will decide on monetary policy, with the former bringing
forward its semi-annual meeting from the usual April date. Both
central banks are widely expected to ease policy, joining the
increasing number of countries launching significant monetary
measures.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
