Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 30 December 2019
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the article.
- Worldwide manufacturing PMI surveys to reveal production momentum at tail end of 2019
- German inflation and labour market data
- Hong Kong SAR economic updates
The coming week brings in the New Year, so we dedicate our special report this week to a summary of the main economic projections for the year ahead from our Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh.
Global recession risks have fallen in recent months with PMI surveys in particular sending encouraging signs of stabilisation. The headline global PMI hit a four-month high in November, with both manufacturing and services components lifting higher. The former, which led the 2018-19 slowdown, has now risen continually since mid-year. We will therefore get an updated insight into whether world economic growth momentum has continued to build heading into 2020 via the manufacturing PMI surveys for December during the coming week. The UK also sees the construction PMI released.
Other key data to watch for the US include pending home sales, inventories and the trade balance, while Europe sees German retail sales, labour market and inflation data, with the latter also updated for Spain, France and Italy. UK economy watches will also eye mortgage approvals numbers.
In Asia, insights into the resilience of the Hong Kong SAR in the face of trade wars and domestic unrest will be released via trade and retail sales data, while South Korea publishes industrial production, retail sales and trade numbers. Inflation data are meanwhile released for both Thailand and Indonesia.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
Recent week ahead economic previews
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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