Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 3 June 2019
- Global manufacturing and service sector PMI surveys to provide steer on business trends
- US employment report to give Fed guidance
- ECB, RBA and RBI meetings eyed for further stimulus
- Special report on India
The first week of the month is always busy, this time featuring global PMI releases for manufacturing and services as well as the US jobs report and the ECB's monetary policy meeting.
Official GDP data for most countries, including the US, Eurozone, Japan, UK and China, surprised on the upside in the first quarter, but the second quarter is looking disappointing according to the latest surveys. April's global PMI sank to its lowest since late-2016, and May's surveys are looking even more worrying. Flash PMI data have already showed growth slowing sharply in the US alongside only modest growth in the Eurozone and a renewed deterioration of manufacturing in Japan. The ongoing weakness of manufacturing which has pervaded the flash PMI surveys is perhaps no surprise, given the escalation of trade war tensions during the month.
Additional insight in the US economy will also be gained from the jobs report, which includes non-farm payroll, unemployment and earnings numbers. The report will steer markets on whether a wavering Fed's next move will be a hike or cut in interest rates.
In terms of central bank action, the week sees monetary policy meetings at European Central Bank as well as the Reserve Banks of both India and Australia. With the former remaining concerned over weak growth, low inflation and the impact of trade wars, and viewing fresh in-house forecasts, all eyes will be on whether the ECB's Governing Council sees fresh stimulus measures being needed, such as more generous bank loans.
Speculation has also risen that both India and Australia could see interest rates being cut soon amid darkening global economic outlooks. Both countries are settling down after general elections, and our special report this week looks at the outlook for India (see page 6).
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Asia Pacific Special Report
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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