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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special
Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Monetary policy meetings in the UK, India, Brazil, Russia,
Australia and Thailand
A full economic calendar for the coming week starts with
worldwide PMI surveys and culminates in Friday's US non-farm
payroll report, but also includes updates to GDP for Indonesia and
the Philippines, trade data for the US, China, Brazil, Australia,
Taiwan, Germany and France, as well as industrial production
numbers for Germany, Italy, Spain and Malaysia.
Central bank meetings in the UK, Australia, India, Russia and
Thailand will also be in the spotlight, with the Bank of England
under particular scrutiny after recent wranglings over recovery
prospects. The earnings season also continues with over 1,400
companies reporting.
Global PMI data will be eagerly awaited to assess whether the
rebound in business activity from COVID-19 lockdowns has been
sustained into July. Flash PMI data brought tentative good news,
albeit with conditions varying markedly by country and hinting that
growth could falter after this initial rebound. Most notably,
growth of new business in the US deteriorated, linked in many cases
to re-imposed lockdowns. Analysts are hence expecting ISM data to
pare some of the gains seen in June. Nonfarm payrolls are meanwhile
set to rise by some 2.3 million, but that would still leave the
count more than 12 million below the pre-pandemic peak,
highlighting the drag on the economic recovery from the labour
market (page 3).
In Europe, the Bank of England's rate setters meet, with
projections for growth and inflation updated alongside fresh PMI
and house price data. While the Bank's Chief Economist sees a
V-shaped recovery, not all policymakers are so optimistic. Such
caution is perhaps warranted: although the flash UK PMI hit a
five-year high in July, job losses accelerated (page 4).
In Asia Pacific, China PMI data are among the highlights, but
analysts will also be eager to gauge policymakers' views on
recovery prospects following rate-setting meetings at central banks
in India, Thailand and Australia. Second quarter GDP for Indonesia
and the Philippines will also draw scrutiny, highlighting the
impact of the pandemic (page 5).
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
