Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 3 August 2020
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
- Worldwide manufacturing and services PMIs
- US monthly employment report
- Monetary policy meetings in the UK, India, Brazil, Russia, Australia and Thailand
A full economic calendar for the coming week starts with worldwide PMI surveys and culminates in Friday's US non-farm payroll report, but also includes updates to GDP for Indonesia and the Philippines, trade data for the US, China, Brazil, Australia, Taiwan, Germany and France, as well as industrial production numbers for Germany, Italy, Spain and Malaysia.
Central bank meetings in the UK, Australia, India, Russia and Thailand will also be in the spotlight, with the Bank of England under particular scrutiny after recent wranglings over recovery prospects. The earnings season also continues with over 1,400 companies reporting.
Global PMI data will be eagerly awaited to assess whether the rebound in business activity from COVID-19 lockdowns has been sustained into July. Flash PMI data brought tentative good news, albeit with conditions varying markedly by country and hinting that growth could falter after this initial rebound. Most notably, growth of new business in the US deteriorated, linked in many cases to re-imposed lockdowns. Analysts are hence expecting ISM data to pare some of the gains seen in June. Nonfarm payrolls are meanwhile set to rise by some 2.3 million, but that would still leave the count more than 12 million below the pre-pandemic peak, highlighting the drag on the economic recovery from the labour market (page 3).
In Europe, the Bank of England's rate setters meet, with projections for growth and inflation updated alongside fresh PMI and house price data. While the Bank's Chief Economist sees a V-shaped recovery, not all policymakers are so optimistic. Such caution is perhaps warranted: although the flash UK PMI hit a five-year high in July, job losses accelerated (page 4).
In Asia Pacific, China PMI data are among the highlights, but analysts will also be eager to gauge policymakers' views on recovery prospects following rate-setting meetings at central banks in India, Thailand and Australia. Second quarter GDP for Indonesia and the Philippines will also draw scrutiny, highlighting the impact of the pandemic (page 5).
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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