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Join us in the PMI by IHS Markit Global Webcast (8 July)
to get the latest insights into the economic impact of the COVID-19
pandemic from the world's leading survey data.
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special
Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Worldwide manufacturing and service sector PMI surveys for
June
US employment report including non-farm payrolls, FOMC
minutes
Markets will be looking for further confirmation that the global
economy has started to recover from the initial impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic, though will also be closely watching for signs
of second waves of infections. Key data releases include the global
PMI surveys plus the US monthly jobs report.
Hopes of V-shaped recoveries from COVID-19 lockdowns have been
buoyed by improving data, including the flash PMIs for June, which
showed a record rise across the largest developed economies to hint
at the global economy returning to growth in June (see out special
report on page 6). Final PMIs for both manufacturing and services
are released around the world on Wednesday and Friday
respectively.
In addition to the IHS Markit and ISM PMI surveys, US data
releases include the monthly employment report, which includes
unemployment and non-farm payroll data. Some 2.5 million jobs were
added in May with a further 3 million gain anticipated in June
according to the market consensus. While the jobless rate is
expected to ease further from a post-war record 14.7% in April, it
will inevitably remain elevated. Higher than expected joblessness
in June will inevitably curb economic recovery expectations, which
are already in doubt amid signs of a second wave of infections.
Other US releases include trade, factory orders and housing data,
plus the latest FOMC minutes (page 3).
For Europe, the PMI data are supplemented by sentiment surveys
from the European Commission, as well as inflation data for the
eurozone (page 4).
In Asia, China's PMIs will be especially closely watched given
its earlier relaxation of virus-related restrictions. So far the
data have shown encouraging strength, with business activity across
manufacturing and services growing in May at the fastest rate since
the start of 2011. The data for China may therefore help gauge the
extent to which early rebounds in activity from lockdowns might
fade. The Asian PMIs are accompanied by official industrial
production numbers for Japan and South Korea, with trade data
issued in Taiwan, Malaysia and South Korea, all of which will help
gauge the depth of second quarter downturns (page 5).
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
