Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 29 July 2019
- FOMC, Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings
- US non-farm payrolls
- Global manufacturing PMI surveys
- Special reports on Eurozone credit conditions and APAC exports
A full diary for the week ahead includes central bank meetings in the US, UK and Japan, plus key data releases such as worldwide manufacturing PMI surveys, US non-farm payrolls and eurozone GDP.
Policymaking at the world's central banks is being led by concerns about the health of the global economy, and especially the extent to which exports are being hit by trade wars. Worldwide PMI data will therefore be closely watched for any further signs of weakness after June saw the smallest rise in global factory activity since 2012 and a deepening export downturn.
Given the recent weak global data flow, anything other than a quarter-point interest rate cut from the US Fed will surprise markets as the FOMC meets. Chances of a larger cut were scaled back after a bumper non-farm payroll report for June, meaning Friday's updated jobs report could form an important steer for future policy action. PMI data from IHS Markit and the ISM will also provide key updates on US manufacturing.
No change in policy is meanwhile expected at the Bank of England, but the Monetary Policy Committee may take a more dovish stance after the economy has shown signs of sliding into decline and the new government raises the risk of a no-deal Brexit.
In Asia, views are mixed on whether the Bank of Japan will act to support the economy or bide its time. Recent data show domestic demand helping to offset the trade slowdown, but failing to loosen policy at a time of Fed and ECB stimulus could cause the yen to spike. PMI data, especially for China, will also be particularly closely eyed for damage from trade wars, and the escalating impact on APAC trade forms the focus of our special report on.
With the ECB lining up further stimulus, Eurozone GDP is updated for the second quarter, and is widely expected to show growth slowing sharply in line with weaker PMI surveys. Our second special report looks at how a deterioration of credit conditions has added a further worrying headwind in the euro area.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
Key diary events
US week ahead
Europe week ahead
Asia Pacific week ahead
Europe: Eurozone Credit Conditions: Creating Concerns
APAC: The APAC Export Slump: Asia's Canaries in a Coal Mine
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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