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Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 27 December 2021
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
The final week of 2021 is upon us with the holiday-shortened week seeing a light economic data calendar before 2022 kickstarts with a barrage of releases. Worldwide PMIs for December will be due as we return from the new year holidays while US updates employment figures. From the central banks, we have the first RBA meeting of 2022 and Fed FOMC minutes from their December meeting.
The countdown to Christmas had so far been marred by persistent COVID-19 Omicron variant concerns, though a study of South African data suggesting that the Omicron outbreak has caused less severe disease offered some reprieve for markets midweek. That said, one is always cautioned from reading too much into year-end markets where thinned volumes may well put prices at risk of greater volatility. As far as economic data have shown this week, US consumer confidence continued to trend positively, in line with IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI findings. Going into the new year, we will continue to track whether this optimism translates to further growth ahead.
Meanwhile lingering COVID-19 disruptions continue to affect different parts of the world, sustaining its potential to drive regional divergences. The UK notably saw the Omicron variant affecting service sector output and cases remain well on the rise. This is amid nascent signs of easing supply constraints in December. More details will come with the worldwide PMIs due at the start of 2022. With that, we send all our readers our very best wishes for the holiday season and for 2022!
PMI commentary: Jingyi Pan
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
- US economy accelerated prior to Omicron, but renewed weakness apparent
- Flash PMIs signal sharp slowing in developed world growth at start of 2022 as Omicron wave hits
- US economic growth slows to 18-month low as Omicron wave exacerbates supply delays and labour shortages
- Eurozone growth slows as flash PMI slides to 52.4. Omicron hits services, but manufacturers benefit from easing supply constraints
- UK flash PMI signals economic resilience amid Omicron wave
- Japan and Australia enter third economic downturns as Omicron wave hits
- Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 24 January 2022
- PMI survey data to reveal Omicron impact around the world
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