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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
Third quarter GDP updates include estimates for the US and
Eurozone
Monetary policy meetings in the eurozone, Japan, Canada and
Brazil
US earnings season and China's five-year plan
The week sees a full economic calendar including third quarter
GDP estimates for the US, Eurozone, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan and South
Korea. Higher frequency data updates include US durable goods
orders, housing market and trade, as well as Eurozone inflation and
unemployment, plus a host of industrial production and retail sales
updates across Asia.
Central bank watchers will meanwhile be kept busy with policy
meetings scheduled for the euro area, Japan, Canada and Brazil.
In addition, the ever-closer US presidential election, the
Brexit deadline of 31st October, the earnings season - with almost
a thousand firms reporting - and China's Communist Party's Fifth
Plenum mean there's unlikely to be a dull moment.
In the US, political risk remains high on the agenda ahead of
3rd November election day, but the week will also allow markets to
take stock of third quarter trends both in terms of GDP and some
948 corporate earnings releases. IHS Markit expects GDP to have
grown at an annualised rate of around 33%, but for the fourth
quarter to see growth slacken sharply, albeit remain robust by
historical standards with flash PMI numbers continuing to improve
in October.
Similarly, GDP data for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and
Spain will inevitably show strong rebounds after the collapse seen
in the second quarter, but the focus will likely rest on how the
ECB's Governing Council assesses downside risks to the outlook.
Flash PMI survey data showed the region falling back into
contraction amid rising COVID infection rates.
In Asia, China maps out its next five-year plan and long-term
economic strategy. South Korea and Taiwan are meanwhile expected to
have seen GDP expand at quarterly rates of 10.5% and 6.8%
respectively in the third quarter, but the Hong Kong SAR economy is
expected to contract at a 7% rate. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile
expected to downgrade its growth forecasts at its upcoming policy
meeting. Japan's PMI data remained in contraction territory in
October. China's NBS PMI data close off the month.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
