Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 26 August 2019
- US rate guidance from PCE and GDP updates
- Inflation data to steer ECB policy stance
- German data eyed for recession risks
- Data on industrial production in key Asian economies, plus BoK meeting
- Special reports on Eurozone 'super core' inflation and India FDI surge
Fed watchers will be eager for further insights into the US central bank's thinking after minutes to July FOMC meeting showed policy committee members were split. With flash US PMI data firing a warning shot on US economic growth, indicating the smallest new business growth seen in a decade and hinting at more monetary easing, all data will be keenly eyed for clues of growth momentum and price trends. Home sales data are accompanied by durable goods orders and an updated estimate of second quarter GDP, alongside person income, spending and price data. Core PCE prices will be especially anticipated as this is an inflation gauge favoured by the Fed.
With the ECB lining up further stimulus, which we expect to come in September, markets will be watching for flash consumer inflation data for August, which is widely expected to show subdued price growth (see our first special report).
In Germany, a clutch of data, including a final estimate of second quarter GDP with breakdown, as well as business surveys, will be scrutinised for the likelihood of a recession amid growing concerns over the impact of a German economic downturn on the wider euro area economy.
In Asia, the focus is on the state of manufacturing conditions in the face of intensified trade tensions. Industrial output figures are published for Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore. China NBS PMI data (issued on 31st Aug) will also be under scrutiny, as will industrial profits data. GDP releases from India will meanwhile offered clues as to whether the economic slowdown has deepened. Our second special report this week looks at how India's initiatives helped to attract greater inflows of foreign direct investments in recent years.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
Key diary events
US week ahead
Europe week ahead
Asia Pacific week ahead
Europe: Eurozone "super core" inflation rate has risen, but worryingly slowly
APAC: India's surging foreign direct investment inflows
PMI commentary: Bernard Aw
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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