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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special
Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the
article.
US GDP, durable goods orders, PCE inflation and consumer
spending
Eurozone sentiment surveys and inflation updates
China PMI and profits, India GDP, Japan's industrial production
and retail sales
Geopolitical risks remain at the forefront of investors' minds,
meaning trade wars, Brexit and UK politics and escalating tensions
in Hong Kong SAR could all steer markets. However, the week also
sees key data releases in the US and Eurozone which will help guide
policymaking decisions in upcoming December central bank meetings,
while the trade war impact on China will be assessed via fresh PMI
and profits data.
In the US, all economic data will be eyed for clues as to
whether the 11th December policy meeting will see anything other
than the FOMC sitting on its hands. Chair Powell sees further cuts
as unlikely assuming conditions do not deteriorate, meaning
incoming data will be watched carefully by the markets for signs of
further weakness. Durable goods orders, consumer spending, PCE
inflation, homes sales, goods trade and a second estimate of GDP
fill the calendar.
In Europe, a clutch of inflation numbers for the Eurozone,
Germany, France and Spain will be eyed for price trends in November
ahead of Christine Lagarde's first ECB Governing Council policy
meeting on 12th December, as will European Commission confidence
surveys, which include the German IFO survey. GDP updates are also
issued for France and Italy. However, UK politics will no doubt
hold centre stage as the 12th December general election nears.
In Asia Pacific, trade war impact on China will be sought from
industrial profits data and the NBS manufacturing PMI numbers, the
latter having disappointed markets in October, while GDP data is
expected to show a further cooling of India's economy. Bank of
Korea's policymakers will meanwhile meet to discuss the need for
further stimulus. In Japan, a number of data releases will add
insight into the impact of October's sales tax rise.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
