Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 24 June 2019
- US rate guidance from PCE and GDP updates
- Inflation data to steer ECB policy stance
- Data on industrial production in key Asian economies, plus BoJ updates
- Special reports on the G20 Leaders Summit and the outlook for German manufacturing
Trade wars and politics look set to dominate the markets, monitoring progress between the US and China at the G20 Leader Summit meeting in particular (see our special report on page 6). However, a number of key data releases will add insight into the extent to which the trade-led global economic slowdown could spur further policy action, especially in the Eurozone, where signs of manufacturing-led economic weakness have intensified (see our report on Germany, page 8).
With FOMC watchers hungry for insights into the health of the US economy, all data will be eagerly eyed for clues of growth momentum and price trends. Home price and home sales data are accompanied by durable goods orders and an updated estimate of first quarter GDP, as well as personal income, spending and price data. Of the latter, core PCE prices will be especially keenly awaited as this is an inflation gauge watched closely by the Fed (see page 3).
Similarly in the eurozone, markets will be watching flash consumer inflation data for June as the ECB stands ready to introduce new stimulus. Swaps market pricing of inflation expectations in the euro area have fallen to record lows. Business and consumer sentiment surveys are also published for Europe. In the UK, updated first quarter GDP takes the spotlight in an otherwise light week for data but Brexit continues to dominate the news (see page 4).
In Asia, the focus intensifies on the health of manufacturing amid escalating trade war tensions. Industrial output numbers are published for Japan, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea. China's industrial profits will also be under scrutiny, as will the NBS PMI data (issued on 30th June). Releases from the Bank of Japan will meanwhile be scoured for clues as to what form new stimulus could take (see page 5).
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- G20 Summit: High Noon for US-China Trade Talks
- When will the German manufacturing sector recover?
Europe commentary: Kenneth Wattret
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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The Flash U.S. Composite Output Index posted 54.4 in September (August: 54.6) to signal a solid rise in private sec… https://t.co/FQQZXsHKig