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The coming week will see GDP estimate updates for the US,
Germany and France for a more accurate view into the extent of the
economic collapse during the second quarter. Markets will, however,
focus their minds on business surveys and a virtual meeting of
global central bankers to gauge recovery paths going forward as
well as glean what monetary policymakers' latest view is regarding
the global economy.
The Jackson Hole symposium, to be held virtually, will be
watched for any signs of future policy changes at the Fed in
particular, and broader guidance on global monetary policy.
Flash
IHS Markit US PMI indicated a solid rise in private sector
growth during August, with services business activity returning to
expansion. Alongside robust retail sales and housing data for July,
eyes now turn to durable goods orders, personal income and spending
updates for more clues as to the strength of the recovery heading
into the third quarter. However, there remain concerns as to the
durability of momentum gained amid efforts to contain COVID-19
infection cases. The Republican National Convention meanwhile will
also gather interest in the run up to November's election.
In Europe, after
flash PMI data signalled a loss of momentum in eurozone growth
in August, analysts will look to a slew of sentiment surveys across
the eurozone's three largest economies for further guidance on the
progress of any recovery. Meanwhile, a speech by the Bank of
England governor will provide clues as to the central bank's latest
thinking on negative interest rates as a viable policy tool.
In Asia, data releases on trade, industrial production and
retail sales are among the highlights, but analysts will also be
monitoring sentiment surveys in South Korea, Japan and Indonesia to
appraise the prospect of further economic recovery in the region.
Flash PMI data for
Japan and
Australia indicated weakness in economic activity midway
through the third quarter.
Industrial profits for July in China will also draw scrutiny for
signs of improvement in the industrial sector. A decision on
monetary policy will meanwhile come from the Bank of Korea.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
