Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 23 September 2019
- US, Eurozone, Japan and Australia Flash PMIs
- US GDP, PCE update and durable goods orders
- China industrial profits
- Policy decisions in the Philippines, New Zealand and Thailand
- Special report on APAC export outlook
A busy week ahead includes flash PMI™ surveys, updates on US GDP and consumers, plus some key central bank speeches and policy decisions in the APAC region. Brexit worries, oil prices and trade wars are of course likely to also dominate markets.
Flash PMI surveys for key economies will provide an important steer on global economic conditions at the end of the third quarter. Among the trends to be watched will be the extent to which the trade downturn could be spilling over to services and employment, and also whether price pressures have continued to weaken. The August PMIs compiled by IHS Markit showed global growth slipping closer to a three-year low in August amid the fastest fall in goods exports since 2012. Price gauges meanwhile eased to three-year lows alongside the waning demand environment.
Guidance on whether more FOMC rate cuts are on the cards will be provided by flash US PMI numbers, which accurately anticipated the industrial downturn this year but have now also hinted at the malaise spreading to services. Updated second quarter US GDP data will also help ascertain whether recent economic trends have matched policymakers' expectations.
Similarly, the flash eurozone PMI will give clues as to whether economic growth weakened in the third quarter, and if Germany has slipped into recession, helping justify the ECB's recent stimulus.
In Asia, flash PMI data for Japan will be important to watch as the country heads towards a sales tax rise, while the Australian flash PMI and a central bank speech will likely provide further clues as to whether more stimulus is likely from the RBA. China's profits and rate decisions in the Philippines, New Zealand and Thailand will also be watched for appetite for further stimulus amid the global slowdown.
To end on a brighter note, our special report this week looks at the outlook for APAC exports amid signs of a tentative rebound in electronics orders.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Ray of light for APAC export outlook as electronics orders rebound
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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