Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 23 December 2019
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the article.
- Japan monetary policy in the spotlight
- China profits data
- US durable goods orders
- Vietnam GDP
The calendar in the forthcoming Christmas week is unsurprisingly light, and we take this opportunity to send all our readers best wishes for the holidays and the New Year. In the meantime, there are nevertheless some important releases to look forward to.
With flash PMI data having indicated the first quarterly decline in Japan's private sector economy in more than three years following the October tax rise, the Bank of Japan meeting minutes and the summary of opinions will provide clues as to the latest thinking of policymakers. Analysts will be looking in particular for signs of additional monetary support to sit alongside the government's recent fiscal stimulus. likewise, a speech by BoJ governor Kuroda will be parsed for insights into policy action. Meanwhile, data updates for housing starts, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production will also be keenly watched.
China's industrial profits will also come under scrutiny for another gauge of the health of the Chinese economy. Following a string of encouraging November data, including PMI surveys, the profits data will be scrutinised for further evidence that current fiscal measures have supported growth.
Vietnam will release fourth quarter GDP data alongside updates to industrial production, inflation and trade. Vietnam PMI indicated growth in November remained below that seen earlier in the year. Investors will also eagerly watch foreign direct investment data for trends arising from the US-China trade dispute.
An assessment of Asian regional trade performance will also be provided by the latest numbers on industrial output in Thailand and Singapore.
In the US, durable goods orders and new home sales data are accompanied by the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Chicago national index, which will give further insights into fourth quarter economic health. Recent flash PMI surveys showed signs of growth lifting higher in December, albeit remaining subdued to hint at a sub-2% GDP expansion.
In Europe, GDP data for the Netherlands and UK mortgage approvals are the main releases.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
Recent week ahead economic previews
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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