Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 22 July 2019
- Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone, Japan and Australia
- US second quarter GDP and earnings season
- ECB policy meeting
- Brexit in spotlight with new UK Prime Minister
- Special reports on EU convergence and Japan-South Korea trade tensions
Second quarter US GDP numbers are expected to add to signs that economic growth has slowed sharply for many economies after a better than expected start to the year and intensified trade tensions. Earnings updates from the likes of Amazon, Facebook, Intel, VW and Caterpillar will likewise provide insights into second quarter performance.
The earnings data follow PMI surveys showing global growth at a three-year low and the business outlook for growth and profits sliding to the lowest since 2009, according to IHS Markit's Global Business Outlook Survey. However, the week also sees important updates of forward-looking data which will be useful in assessing whether the global slowdown has persisted into the third quarter. Flash July PMI numbers for the US, Eurozone, Australia and Japan are released, the latter including the service sector for the first time.
The US GDP, PMI and durable goods data releases take on particular significance ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, at which the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates.
A rise in the eurozone PMI in June caused analysts to pull back on expectations of the scale of anticipated ECB stimulus, meaning July's flash data will be especially closely watched ahead of the ECB's policy meeting. Political uncertainty amid Brexit chaos meanwhile looks set to dominate UK markets with the appointment of a new Prime Minister.
In Asia, the PMI and trade data will be scoured for signs of trade war impact, especially as mounting Japan-South Korea trade tensions could trigger a new trade war (see special report).
Our other special report this week looks at the extent to which EU national economies have converged and the varying outlooks for different countries.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
Key diary events
US week ahead
Europe week ahead
Asia Pacific week ahead
Europe: EU convergence: Slippery path ahead, with no low-hanging fruit in sight
APAC: Will Japan-South Korea trade tensions trigger a new trade war?
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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