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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
The coming week sees flash PMI surveys released for the US,
Eurozone, Japan, UK and Australia, which will provide the first
insights into how these economies have ended the third quarter. The
August PMI data indicated a further strengthening of the
rebound of global business activity from the collapse seen in the
second quarter, but many
consumer-facing sectors remained in decline and worries over
renewed lockdown measures amid fresh waves of infections have hit
activity, notably in Europe.
While IHS Markit's PMI surveys have signalled a strong US
economic rebound in the third quarter so far, the manufacturing
expansion remained lacklustre and consumer services providers
continued to report falling activity as virus worries persisted.
The September manufacturing and services data will therefore
provide a valuable guide to whether momentum is being sustained or
lost as we head into the fourth quarter. Additional insight will
come from Kansas and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys. The US
also publishes durable goods orders data for August, alongside key
housing market metrics for new and existing homes sales, as well as
home prices (page 3).
Flash PMI data for the eurozone and UK will be especially
eagerly awaited, not least by policymakers seeking a grasp on
recovery momentum. While the UK led the PMI growth rankings in
August,
sub-indices from the survey hinted that the upturn lacked legs,
notably with a
steepening loss of jobs being reported. Meanwhile, rising COVID
infection rates caused renewed economic contractions in Italy and
Spain during August, according to the PMIs, raising fears that the
eurozone's recovery is fading. IFO and other national sentiment
indices are also released (page 4).
Over in Asia Pacific, mainland China's industrial profits are
issued as well as industrial production data for Singapore and
Taiwan, plus trade numbers for Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR and Thailand.
As these data only show the situation to August, it's the timelier
PMI numbers for Japan and Australia for September that will likely
steer sentiment on recovery trajectories for the region. Policy
meetings are meanwhile convened in New Zealand and Thailand (more
on page 5).
Rajiv Biswas, Executive Director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Sian Jones, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
