Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 2 September 2019
- Worldwide PMI surveys
- US employment report
- Australia and South Korea GDP
- Central bank meetings in Australia and Russia
- Special reports on Australia and Italy
PMI surveys form the highlight of the week, providing updates on global business conditions midway through the third quarter which could prove influential in steering central bank policy decisions. July's surveys pointed to global growth running at one of the weakest rates for three years. The latest policy action meanwhile comes from Australia and Russia, where pressure is mounting for more stimulus. The week also sees US and China both raise tariffs, while Brexit turmoil looks set to foster growing political uncertainty.
In the US, non-farm payrolls and PMI data from IHS Markit and the ISM will be eyed for clues as to whether the Fed is likely to add more stimulus. Policymakers were split on the need for July's quarter-point rate cut, but since then the flash US PMI recorded the weakest growth of new business for a decade as the manufacturing downturn showed further signs of spreading to services.
In Europe, UK PMI data will be especially closely watched for risks that the economy could slide into recession after contracting 0.2% in the second quarter. Brexit uncertainty has heightened in recent days and has the potential to further dampen business and consumer spending. The extent of any new European Central Bank stimulus is also likely to be affected by PMI survey data for August, the flash numbers for which showed manufacturing enduring a summer slump which was only partially offset by the service sector. Nowcasts suggest that Germany in particular looks susceptible to falling into recession.
In Asia, the impact of trade wars and - in the case of Hong Kong - political unrest will be under scrutiny via PMI data, trade numbers for China and South Korea's GDP. Recent PMI data for China hinted at a stabilisation in manufacturing, while services growth appeared to be being supported by domestic stimulus.
This week's special reports look at Australia's economic ties with China and the fiscal situation facing a new Italian government.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
Key diary events
US week ahead
Europe week ahead
Asia Pacific week ahead
Italy: A new coalition government, same fiscal headaches
APAC: Australia's Deepening Economic Ties with China: A Double-Edged Sword?
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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