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Flash PMI data for the US, Eurozone, Japan, UK and
Australia
UK inflation and retail sales
US presidential debate?
The week ahead starts with China releasing third quarter GDP
numbers and ends with flash PMI data providing insights into how
the world's largest economies started the fourth quarter. Whether
the week also sees another US presidential debate between Trump and
Biden remains uncertain.
Flash PMI surveys are updated for the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan
and Australia, and will reveal how these economies - representing
around half of global GDP - will have started the fourth quarter.
While GDP trends for the second and third quarters have been
relatively easy to anticipate (an unprecedented decline followed by
a sharp rebound), understanding the dynamics of the fourth quarter
will be more challenging, especially as many countries are now
seeing second waves of COVID-19 infections. The September PMIs
showed global economic growth losing a little momentum, thanks to a
large degree to many consumer-facing service industries remaining
in a steep downturn. Some countries, notably Spain and France, even
slipped back into contraction amid rising infection rates.
In the US, additional uncertainty is created by the upcoming
presidential election and the lack of clarity over continued
stimulus. As well as the flash PMIs, jobless claims data will be
eagerly awaited for joblessness insights as polling continues ahead
of the 3rd November election day (page 3).
In Europe, the UK, Eurozone, French and German PMIs are
accompanied by retail sales and inflation numbers for the former,
plus a cluster of sentiment surveys to help better assess consumer
and business confidence amid the ongoing pandemic (page 4).
In Asia, IHS Markit estimates China's economy to have grown at a
5.9% annual rate in the three months to September, up from 3.1% in
the second quarter, but eyes will also focus on the higher
frequency monthly data such as industrial output, retail sales and
investment for indications as to whether the recovery has
maintained momentum. Meanwhile, flash PMIs will also be gleaned in
particular for signs of global trade continuing to revive (page
5).
Rajiv Biswas, Executive Director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Sian Jones, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
