Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 19 July 2021
The first glimpses of worldwide economic growth and inflation trends at the start of the third quarter will be revealed by flash PMI surveys for July, and the European Central Bank and Bank Indonesia will also hold monetary policy meetings in what's going to be a busy week of economic data releases.
Crossing the mid-year point, markets have stepped into murkier waters with global economic growth showing hints of slowing while the spread of the Delta variant has become an increasing problem for a greater number of countries. June PMI surveys offered a comparable view of the different countries' growth momentum which , charted against their vaccination progress, emphasises the difference between the haves and have-not where vaccines are concerned.
Given this point, the urgency to step up the inoculation progress had certainly been noted, though it remains to be seen if the widening divergence, such as that evident between the developed and emerging world, may show signs of reversal. This will be closely watched in the July iteration of PMI surveys.
Record price index readings in PMI surveys have meanwhile provided a prescient insight into recent upside inflation surprises, so the costs and selling prices gauges, as well as capacity constraint indicators such as supplier lead-times, should also be worth watching.
Central bank meetings continue to unfold, with the ECB holding their first meeting following the tweak to their inflation target. No surprises are expected, though note that forward guidance is set to be revisited.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson, Jingyi Pan
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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