Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 19 August 2019
- Jackson Hole and G7 summit
- Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone, Japan and Australia
- Meeting minutes from FOMC, RBA and RBI
- Japan trade and inflation update
- Special report on German recession risk
Increasing uncertainty over the outlook of US monetary policy and heightened fears of potential economic recessions rattled financial markets around the world, meaning that the Jackson Hole symposium and G7 summit next week will take on particular significance with investors seeking updated thinking from policymakers.
These multilateral meetings follow PMI surveys showing global growth remaining among the weakest seen over the past three years, with the worldwide outlook becoming increasingly gloomy. The week also sees important updates of forward-looking data which will be useful in assessing whether the global slowdown has persisted midway through the third quarter, thereby raising recession risks that would cue further central bank stimulus around the world. Flash August PMI numbers for the US, Eurozone, Australia and Japan are released. Our special report this week looks at the recession risks facing the German economy.
In the US, the Jackson Hole symposium and flash PMI data will take centre stage, but FOMC minutes for July's meeting that saw the first rate cut since 2008 will also be scrutinised for clarity on the future direction of US monetary policy.
With rising expectations of ECB stimulus, the account of July's policy meeting may give some signals about the scale of anticipated monetary support. August's flash PMI data will also be closely watched. The release of final inflation estimates is also likely to lend support to the case for greater monetary support.
In Asia, the PMI and trade data will be scoured for signs of trade war impact amid growing tensions between Japan and South Korea. Given the wave of monetary easing, Asian watchers will monitor Bank Indonesia's policy meeting as well as minutes from latest central bank meetings in Australia and India.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
Key diary events
US week ahead
Europe week ahead
Asia Pacific week ahead
Europe: German recession risk revisited
PMI commentary: Bernard Aw
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
© 2019, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
- Canada facing one of toughest export climates for a decade
- US manufacturing limps into fourth quarter, but underlying trend is improving
- IHS Markit European GDP Nowcasts: Eurozone to grow by 0.1% in Q4, but contraction foreseen for stagnant Germany
- Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 18 November 2019
- Global growth slips closer to decade lows as manufacturing weakness spreads to services
- Official data corroborate survey signals of UK labour market cooling
- UK avoids recession but underlying growth trend deteriorates
- Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 11 November 2019