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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
Flash PMIs will offer early insights into economic conditions
into the start of Q4 next week. The packed economic calendar also
finds China's Q3 GDP update at the start of the week alongside
industrial production and retail sales data. Meanwhile, the US
reports industrial production while the UK September inflation
report will be especially closely watched.
October flash PMI releases offer timely economic updates as
supply constraints and the energy crisis dominate headlines.
Manufacturers worldwide experienced near-record delays and
increased price pressures in September, though there were some
signs of production constraints easing in Asia. The October data
will therefore be scrutinised for updates on whether the situation
had further worsened. The key gauge amongst the manufacturing PMI
sub-indices to offer clues on the supply situation will be the
suppliers' delivery times index. In services, we'll be keen to
watch out for signs that the fading Delta wave will help lift
consumer activity in particular, notably in the US.
Meanwhile, in the UK, September inflation numbers look set to
rise further according to elevated readings signalled by the IHS
Markit/CIPS UK PMI data, but any worsening output trend alongside
the price data could cause a policy rift at the Bank of
England.
In APAC, Bank Indonesia meets to decide rates while China
updates Loan Prime Rate figures. However, the attention is expected
to be on China's Q3 GDP reading, which is expected to reflect a
continued easing of growth momentum in the third quarter.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
