Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 18 November 2019
- Flash PMI survey data for the US, Eurozone, Japan, Australia
- New UK flash PMI survey releases
- FOMC minutes
- Special reports on Hong Kong SAR economic and political situation, and Europe's resilient service sector
Flash PMI surveys provide the highlight of the economic calendar, with newly released UK PMI surveys meaning the flash data are now available for all 'G4' economies as well as Australia.
The November flash data come on the heels of October's worldwide PMI surveys having registering one of the weakest monthly expansions since the global financial crisis. Key things to watch in the flash numbers will be whether the manufacturing downturn is easing, or if the service sector is suffering spill-over effects from the weakened goods-producing sector.
In the US, the FOMC appears satisfied that its third rate cut represented the end of its policy loosening, but the PMIs have brought mixed news. Although manufacturing has shown some signs of stabilising, the service sector reported the weakest inflow of new business since 2009 in October, and job losses were also more widely reported. Flash PMI data will give a good insight into both GDP and employment growth in the fourth quarter.
In contrast to the US, the eurozone service sector has shown more resilience, and ahead of the eurozone flash release we explore just how resilient the service sector in the single currency area might be in the coming months in our special report on.
The week also sees the existing flash PMIs accompanied by UK data. The commencement of flash PMIs for the UK comes at a time of the economy suffering from heightened Brexit-related uncertainty, an upcoming general election and a newly-split Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England.
In Asia Pacific, the Japan flash PMI will give further insight into how the economy is faring after October's sales tax hike, and whether Australia is slipping closer to stagnation. Local elections in Hong Kong SAR will also be a key event, in the lead up to which we look at how the deepening recession looks set to extend into the fourth quarter.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Mind the gap: why the spillovers from weakness in eurozone industry to services have diminished
- Hong Kong SAR economy faces deepening economic downturn
- PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
- Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
- APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
Recent week ahead economic previews
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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🇺🇸 The recovery in the US services economy continued to tail off in July, as output growth slowed to the weakest si… https://t.co/XNzYKMEuww