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Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone, Japan, UK and
Australia
China industrial production, retail sales data
Trade and inflation data due for the eurozone and various Asian
economies
A busy economic calendar is seen for the week ahead with special
attention on May's flash PMI data due from the US, Eurozone, Japan,
UK and Australia on Friday. The survey will provide eagerly awaited
updates to economic recovery momentum and inflation trends.
China's retail sales, industrial output and investment data are
meanwhile due Monday, while the Eurozone's economic releases
include GDP and CPI, and the UK updates its labour market and
retail sales numbers. Mish-mashed between which will be a series of
trade and inflation data from several Asia economies plus GDP
updates from Japan and Thailand.
Flash PMI surveys for May
Key questions awaiting answers from the upcoming flash PMI
surveys will surround the themes of economic recovery momentum,
supply shortages and inflation.
April surveys had indicated an acceleration of the
global economic recovery as lockdown measures eased in many
parts of the world.
The US notably led the global expansion as consumer sectors
increasingly supported the upturn. However, when good economic
news turns out to be bad news for the markets is when stronger
economic growth is being accompanied by rising prices, which has
ruffled the markets in recent sessions. Higher inflation has been a
key feature in recent PMIs, with new peaks for various survey price
gauges often linked to
record supply delays, notably for semiconductors.
Although central banks including the Fed have kept an emphasis
on jobs, markets have grown concerned over inflation, and will be
eager to see signs of demand shifting from goods to services,
supply constraints easing and price gauges moving off their
highs.
In Europe, the flash PMI surveys for May are increasingly
expected to add to signs that UK and Eurozone economic recoveries
are moving up a gear in the second quarter, following the declines
in GDP seen in the first quarter, which is likely to be confirmed
by the eurozone GDP numbers. Renewed expansions were signalled in
April as the PMIs beat expectations, showing
surging UK activity alongside
record Eurozone manufacturing growth, with the latter's
services sector also expanding for the first time since August
2020.
China data dump plus pan-Asia trade and inflation
releases
China is meanwhile also expected to find industrial production
and retail sales figures faring strongly in the upcoming releases
as the economy continues to build on its recovery from the
pandemic.
Further across Asia, trade and inflation data will be in
abundance. Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Indonesia will provide
updates on their April trade performances. Consumer inflation data
will meanwhile arrive from Japan and Hong Kong SAR, while South
Korean producer prices will also be updated.
Notably, Japan's GDP - released Tuesday - is expected to revert
into decline as COVID-19 restrictions weighed on consumption in the
first quarter. However, recent surveys have shown an improving
trend, albeit with a
k-shaped recovery in Japan as manufacturing gains were offset
by service sector woes.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
