Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 17 June 2019
- FOMC meeting forms highlight of the week amid increased bets of rate cuts
- Bank of England policymakers likely on hold, adrift in Brexit fog
- Clues to further stimulus sought in Japan
- Flash PMIs for the US, Eurozone, Japan and Australia
- Special report on ECB policy options
The coming week sees key central bank meetings, including the US, UK, Brazil, Japan and several other Asian countries. Central bankers face growing unease about the global economic environment and are widely expected to tilt to the dovish side as downside risks prevail amid concerns about the impact of trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainty. Flash PMI survey data for June will add to the policy outlook.
After the ECB announced it was open to new stimulus if required (see our special report on page 6 looking at policy options), attention turns this week to policymakers in the US, UK and Japan. Markets are pricing in several rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, and the Bank of Japan appears increasingly eager to find new stimulus measures. In contrast, the Bank of England seems to be bucking the trend with hawkish comments from some policymakers, but the widespread expectation is that the UK will not see any rate hikes for some time as the Brexit fog lingers.
The policy meetings come ahead of updates to flash PMI survey data, which will provide an important steer on global economic developments, notably in the US, Japan and Eurozone. The US surveys pointed to a sharp slowing in the pace of economic growth and an accompanying slump in price pressures in May. The eurozone meanwhile remained stuck in the slow lane. Both surveys will likely feed into rate expectations for the second half of the year. Japan's PMI has meanwhile indicated a steep export-led downturn of the manufacturing sector in recent months, adding to concern about the health of the economy ahead of planned tax rises later in the year.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- ECB opens the door to more policy easing but will it be enough?
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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