Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 16 September 2019
- Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings
- China fixed asset investment, factory output
- Asia trade numbers
- UK retail sales and inflation data
- Special report on trade-weighted euro
The week ahead is dominated by central bank policy meetings around the world, with the FOMC being at the front and centre. China economic data will also be closely scrutinised, as will trade updates from a number of Asian economies.
Monetary policymaking at the world's central banks is being led by concerns about the health of the global economy and especially the extent to which growth is being hurt by trade wars. The JPMorgan global PMI, compiled by IHS Markit, was close to a three-year low in August amid a worsening trade picture, with goods exports falling at the fastest rate since late 2012.
Given increasing signs of global growth weakness, anything less than a quarter-point interest rate cut from the US Fed will surprise markets when the FOMC meets. Markets are near certain of a second Fed rate cut, according to futures data, after recent dovish remarks from Fed chair Jerome Powell. PMI data from IHS Markit continued to be consistent with US monetary policy remaining in dovish territory.
No change in policy is meanwhile expected at the Bank of England, although increasing signs of the economy sliding into decline and heightened risks of a no-deal Brexit could see the MPC adopt a more dovish stance.
In Asia, concerns that the yen may spike if Japan fails to loosen monetary policy at a time of Fed and ECB easing will place the Bank of Japan's policy meeting in focus, with attention paid to any discussions of possible options available to the central bank. Other regional central banks will also be eyed. Chinese data will be assessed for damage from trade wars as well as effectiveness of fiscal stimulus.
The weakening of the renminbi on a combination of slowing global growth and protracted trade wars has implications not just for the US, but also the eurozone. Our special report looks at how CNY depreciation impact eurozone growth prospects.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
Why a weaker Chinese currency is a headache for the eurozone as well as the US
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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